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Good arguments, but...

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Tuesday, 30 June 2009, at 4:09 p.m.

In Response To: Why are you guys so convinced? (Chuck Bower)

If you were given a set of quite reasonable and well thought out arguments (as we have here) for a decision and a contradictory, statistically significant high level rollout by a bot you trusted, which would you believe?

What's really going on (I believe in most cases here) is that a player has a preconceived notion of what is best. Then a rollout (which is yet to be statistically significant) supports that notion. "Good enough for me..." In a sense the two pieces (intuition and rollout) support each other and therefore strengthen the individual conclusions somewhat, but how much?

FWIW, after 1000 trials 13/11*/10 was ahead by 1.1 j.s.d. when I checked this morning. I'm not stopping until I get at least 3888 and only then if I get 3 j.s.d. or better. I'm running Supremo settings so Stick should be able to include this result in his DB when I get it finishes.

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