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Cube error rates

Posted By: Coolrey
Date: Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 7:23 p.m.

In Response To: Cube error rates (Keene)

Keene: Doubling too early is a one time mistake, but it does remove some of your play problems too - things like market retention, playing on GG situations, it suddenly becomes very easy to play without access to the cube (you just go for the jugular).

RAY: This is plausible BS, but it is BS nonetheless. Doubling too early creates WAY more problems than it removes. It escalates the danger of being redoubled, which increases the pressure on you when you are deciding on making a checker play. Therefore while it is easy to SAY you can just go for the jugular because you not longer have access to the cube, it is not so easy to make those loose double hits the positions sometimes require.

Besides, you just doubled early and it was wrong... Do that often enough and you the "force will be with you". Or should I say the FOUR cubes will be with you?

We cannot hope to duplicate the results the bots get doubling when they do, because we just don't play as well, especially after relinquishing cube access/ownership. Period, end of story, finis.

So how in the hell can we expect to get good results by doubling early, unless we are playing someone who just passes those bad doubles? In some situations they may, but in the vast majority of them they won't and you will be suffering.

EARLY doubling often puts on a disguise and blinds us to our own mortality. Double early, roll well and achieve a very STRONG position... Then roll the only bad shake that leaves two blots, like a 65 when bearing off against the ace point or some such thing... and then you believe that this kind of shit only happens to YOU, and why are you so unlucky?

During that whole dialogue with yourself, which may take place after you own a 4 cube which is going BADLY for you, you are in the wrong ballpark. Because you never deserved the strong position in the first place, you just got lucky. However, you ARE getting what you DESERVE for doubling early... Punishment.

So, in reality everything has been fair and square, yet you are convinced that you are jinxed. Its a mirage, brother.

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