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BGonline.org Forums
Cube error rates
Posted By: Matt Reklaitis In Response To: Cube error rates (Joe Russell)
Date: Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 7:48 p.m.
My take on this situation is that, a bot's evaluation represents values related to its own play. So when calculating the size of any individual error, inherent to that calculation is that your future play is similar to the bots. The more your play differs from the bot's, the more the model breaks down. Another way of saying this is that I suspect a bot calculates low error rates more accurately than high error rates.
As an example: Lets say a bot thinks a position if worth 73% and is a cube but you think it is worth 72% and is just short of a cube. The bot dings you .05 for a missed double. If you keep repeating the same mistake in sequence, are you really losing .05 each time? Arguably no, because the way you are playing it (assuming the bot's play is correct), you are not really getting 73% out of the position, so you're not really giving up .05. But the argument seems a non-starter because a bot cannot model how a particular human plays - all it has for error calculation are methods based on its own play. So even if you are arguably giving up less than .05 * N, there's no practical way for a bot to measure that.
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