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Cube error rates

Posted By: Frank Berger
Date: Thursday, 23 July 2009, at 9:23 p.m.

In Response To: Cube error rates (Joe Russell)

First: the point of this thread (IMHO) is how to achieve a reasonable ER-value taken into account that repeated missed double are harder penalized as a early double (at least in my and Joe's point of view).

To make thing simpler, let's assume we don't play backgammon but a 2-dimensional random walk (see here: http://plus.maths.org/issue15/features/doubling/index.html ) What does it mean, e.g. if non doubling is an 0.2 error.

IMHO (and I hope some of the better mathmaticians will look over this) it means that my expected equity at the end of the game is 0.2 higher when I double now than if I don't double. Does that mean I lose 0.2 if I postpone my double to the next move? I think no.

Depending on the early/late ratio and the dice
- I might be below my doubling point (and happy that I haven't doubled)
- I still have a double - I have a market looser (and lose some equity) So the player looses some equity (depending on the early/late ratio), but he doesn't loose 0.2, but this is his penalty. Let's stretch this example and due some fairy dust (or random) the player stays in that area 5 times. He should have charged 1.0 equity?

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