| |
BGonline.org Forums
Cube error rates
Posted By: Robert-Jan Veldhuizen (Zorba) In Response To: Cube error rates (Frank Berger)
Date: Friday, 24 July 2009, at 5:05 a.m.
IMHO (and I hope some of the better mathmaticians will look over this) it means that my expected equity at the end of the game is 0.2 higher when I double now than if I don't double.
If the bot says you lose 0.2 by not doubling now, it simply means your equity when you roll the dice is 0.2 lower if you didn't double. Missing a double by 0.2 is quite a lot, you can expect either some huge market losers, way over 0.2, or very many smaller market losers, but still over 0.2. Realise that market losers should be multiplied by two: if I fail to double some bearoff where I'm 70% (0.4 cubeless) and then win the game with a 6-6, I lose my market for a full point, not some fraction. With volatile gammonish positions, market-losers can also be quite big.
A typical example could be ND 0.7, DT 0.9, DP 1.00, CL 0.5 (gammonless 75% GWC).
The bot just gives you the average loss. After the actual dice sequence, a no double either cost you much more than the bot dings you for (you got the big marketlosing sequence), it costs you nothing (you get DT again and assume you get it right that time), or it gains you (you get to ND).
Usually the cost (losing your market) is much bigger than the gain (back to ND after bad luck), in your example of a 0.2 missed double. You typically need pretty bad luck to get to a ND position from there, and even then, it's probably not a big loss if you had doubled, or double at that point. On the other hand, you don't need that much luck before you start losing your market, this may be both frequent and (sometimes) a very big marketloss, as it's multiplied by two.
| |
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.