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BGonline.org Forums
Cube error rates
Posted By: Robert-Jan Veldhuizen (Zorba) In Response To: Cube error rates (Frank Berger)
Date: Friday, 24 July 2009, at 10:18 a.m.
As some others already wrote, if you miss a double and lose 0.2 equity, you need positive luck to arrive at the same situation again. That is because averaged over all 1296 dice sequences, not doubling loses you 0.2 points, cubeful. If you arrive at the same D/T situation, you gained 0.2 by either luck or a big double whopper from your opponent.
Supppose ND=0.7, D/T=0.9. You don't double. Then your cubeful equity is only 0.7. If you get to the same position again, however, your cubeful equity is 0.9 (as the bot assumes perfect cube action). So, you gained 0.2 somewhere.
The explanation is that after ND, your luckiest sequences will only lead to 1.0, whereas after D/T they would far exceed 1.0 (market-loss). All the sequences where you get D/T again, don't change. Only the few sequences that get you to ND will give you better equity now, but these are usually few and the equity gain usually small.
BTW, GnuBG's temperature map can help a bit here. It shows equities for ND and D/T for your own 36 rolls. It uses EMG however, so for absolute equity gains and losses you need to multiply the D/T side by 2 (money game).
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