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Cube error rates

Posted By: Fabrice Liardet
Date: Friday, 24 July 2009, at 11:54 a.m.

In Response To: Cube error rates (Maik Stiebler)

If Player A averages 10% errors of cumulative MWC, and Player B averages 20% errors of cumulative MWC, then Snowie's best guess must be that Player A is 60-40 favorite. If Snowie had a perfect evaluation function, it would be an accurate guess.

I am pretty sure that the expected noise from the dice makes the accurate guess closer to 50%. Otherwise you run into the problem of the >100% guess, which is due to the noise from the dice (the underdog has been lucky to be still in the game after giving away all of his initial 50%) and not to the incorrect evaluation function.

Messages In This Thread

• Cube error rates
  Joe Russell -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 1:37 p.m.
  • Cube error rates
    Seth -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 2:22 p.m.
  • Cube error rates
    phlegethos -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 2:33 p.m.
  • Cube error rates
    Keene -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 3:08 p.m.
    • Cube error rates
      Coolrey -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 7:23 p.m.
      • Cube error rates
        Keene -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 8:45 p.m.
        • Cube error rates
          Coolrey -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 5:09 p.m.
          • Cube error rates
            Rich Munitz -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 8:57 p.m.
  • Cube error rates
    Maik Stiebler -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 3:54 p.m.
    • Cube error rates
      Marty Storer -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 5:03 p.m.
      • Cube error rates
        Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 5:05 p.m.
        • Cube error rates
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 5:13 p.m.
        • Cube error rates
          Marty Storer -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 6:12 p.m.
          • Cube error rates
            Coolrey -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 7:05 p.m.
            • Cube error rates
              Gregg Cattanach -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 12:22 p.m.
              • Cube error rates
                Stick -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 12:41 p.m.
                • Cube error rates
                  phil Simborg -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 3:58 p.m.
                • Cube error rates
                  Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 23 July 2009, at 12:24 a.m.
            • Cube error rates
              Marty Storer -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 1:17 p.m.
              • Cube error rates (one correction)
                Marty Storer -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 1:27 p.m.
                • Cube error rates (one correction)
                  Coolrey -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 4:59 p.m.
                  • Cube error rates (one correction)
                    MaX -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 9:25 a.m.
  • Cube error rates
    Chiva Tafazzoli -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 3:54 p.m.
    • Cube error rates
      Coolrey -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 7:09 p.m.
  • Cube error rates
    Gregg Cattanach -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 5:47 p.m.
    • Cube error rates
      Frank Berger -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 7:19 p.m.
      • Cube error rates
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 7:22 p.m.
        • Cube error rates
          Coolrey -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 7:28 p.m.
          • Cube error rates
            Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 7:36 p.m.
            • Cube error rates
              Coolrey -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 7:47 p.m.
              • Cube error rates
                Jake Jacobs -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 3:35 a.m.
                • uhhhhh, kinda?
                  Coolrey -- Thursday, 23 July 2009, at 9:23 p.m.
              • Cube error rates
                phil Simborg -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 3:52 p.m.
          • Cube error rates
            Maik Stiebler -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 7:37 p.m.
            • Cube error rates
              Coolrey -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 7:43 p.m.
              • Cube error rates
                Maik Stiebler -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 8:00 a.m.
                • Cube error rates
                  Coolrey -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 4:41 p.m.
        • Cube error rates
          Frank Berger -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 7:45 p.m.
          • pointer, please
            Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 12:39 a.m.
            • pointer, please
              Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 1:57 a.m.
          • Cube error rates
            Maik Stiebler -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 8:51 a.m.
            • Cube error rates
              Frank Berger -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 10:33 a.m.
          • Cube error rates
            Joe Russell -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 1:52 p.m.
      • Cube error rates
        Gregg Cattanach -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 12:13 p.m.
        • Cube error rates
          Joe Russell -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 1:41 p.m.
          • Cube error rates
            Maik Stiebler -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 6:00 p.m.
            • Cube error rates
              Frank Berger -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 7:14 p.m.
              • Cube error rates
                Maik Stiebler -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 7:53 p.m.
          • Cube error rates
            Sam Pottle -- Thursday, 23 July 2009, at 1:44 a.m.
        • Cube error rates
          Frank Berger -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 3:54 p.m.
  • Cube error rates
    Neil Robins -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 6:04 p.m.
  • Cube error rates
    garyo -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 6:49 p.m.
  • Cube error rates
    Matt Reklaitis -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 7:48 p.m.
    • Cube error rates
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 7:56 p.m.
      • Cube error rates
        Matt Reklaitis -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 8:35 p.m.
  • Cube error rates
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 7:52 p.m.
    • Cube error rates
      Maik Stiebler -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 7:42 a.m.
    • Cube error rates
      Joe Russell -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 11:47 a.m.
      • Cube error rates
        misja -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 2:55 p.m.
      • Cube error rates
        Matt Reklaitis -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 3:58 p.m.
      • Cube error rates
        playBunny -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 5:12 p.m.
  • Cube error rates
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 12:38 p.m.
    • Cube error rates
      Joe Russell -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 1:10 p.m.
      • Cube error rates
        Robert-Jan Veldhuizen (Zorba) -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 2:28 p.m.
        • Cube error rates
          MaX -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 9:41 a.m.
  • What is the purpose of EMG? Of Snowie error rate? [longish]
    dlevy -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 3:02 p.m.
    • What is the purpose of EMG? Of Snowie error rate? [longish]
      Jason Lee -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 4:31 p.m.
      • What is the purpose of EMG? Of Snowie error rate? [longish]
        Rich Munitz -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 9:16 p.m.
        • What is the purpose of EMG? Of Snowie error rate? [longish]
          Mislav Radica -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 11:21 p.m.
    • What is the purpose of EMG? Of Snowie error rate? [longish]
      MaX -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 9:47 a.m.
  • Cube error rates
    Fabrice Liardet -- Thursday, 23 July 2009, at 11:08 a.m.
    • Cube error rates
      Gregg Cattanach -- Thursday, 23 July 2009, at 12:27 p.m.
      • Cube error rates
        Fabrice Liardet -- Thursday, 23 July 2009, at 1:58 p.m.
        • Cube error rates
          Gregg Cattanach -- Thursday, 23 July 2009, at 2:21 p.m.
          • Cube error rates
            Fabrice Liardet -- Thursday, 23 July 2009, at 2:35 p.m.
        • Cube error rates
          Fabrice Liardet -- Thursday, 23 July 2009, at 2:23 p.m.
        • Cube error rates
          Maik Stiebler -- Thursday, 23 July 2009, at 6:10 p.m.
          • Cube error rates
            Fabrice Liardet -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 10:25 a.m.
        • Cube error rates
          Gregg Cattanach -- Thursday, 23 July 2009, at 7:09 p.m.
          • Cube error rates
            Fabrice Liardet -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 10:43 a.m.
            • Cube error rates
              Maik Stiebler -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 11:39 a.m.
              • Cube error rates
                Fabrice Liardet -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 11:54 a.m.
                • Cube error rates
                  Maik Stiebler -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 12:11 p.m.
                  • Cube error rates
                    Fabrice Liardet -- Sunday, 26 July 2009, at 9:50 p.m.
                • Cube error rates
                  Robert-Jan Veldhuizen (Zorba) -- Saturday, 25 July 2009, at 7:31 p.m.
    • Cube error rates
      Joe Russell -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 3:29 a.m.
      • Cube error rates
        Matt Reklaitis -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 5:05 a.m.
        • Cube error rates
          Maik Stiebler -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 6:49 a.m.
  • Cube error rates
    Frank Berger -- Thursday, 23 July 2009, at 9:23 p.m.
    • Cube error rates
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 23 July 2009, at 9:25 p.m.
      • Cube error rates
        Frank Berger -- Thursday, 23 July 2009, at 9:55 p.m.
        • Cube error rates
          Matt Reklaitis -- Thursday, 23 July 2009, at 10:13 p.m.
          • Cube error rates
            Frank Berger -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 9:14 a.m.
            • Cube error rates
              Robert-Jan Veldhuizen (Zorba) -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 10:18 a.m.
              • Cube error rates
                Frank Berger -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 1:36 p.m.
                • Cube error rates
                  Maik Stiebler -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 2:06 p.m.
                • Cube error rates
                  Maik Stiebler -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 2:27 p.m.
                • Cube error rates
                  Joe Russell -- Saturday, 25 July 2009, at 2:48 a.m.
                  • Cube error rates
                    Joe Russell -- Saturday, 25 July 2009, at 2:51 a.m.
                  • Cube error rates
                    Joe Russell -- Saturday, 25 July 2009, at 4:14 a.m.
                    • Cube error rates
                      Bob Koca -- Saturday, 25 July 2009, at 10:01 a.m.
                      • Cube error rates
                        Joe Russell -- Saturday, 25 July 2009, at 10:35 a.m.
                        • Cube error rates
                          Bob Koca -- Saturday, 25 July 2009, at 11:09 a.m.
                • Cube error rates
                  Robert-Jan Veldhuizen (Zorba) -- Saturday, 25 July 2009, at 7:14 p.m.
                  • Cube error rates
                    Frank Berger -- Saturday, 25 July 2009, at 8:13 p.m.
                    • Cube error rates
                      Robert-Jan Veldhuizen (Zorba) -- Sunday, 26 July 2009, at 1:10 p.m.
    • Cube error rates
      Jason Lee -- Thursday, 23 July 2009, at 9:30 p.m.
      • Cube error rates
        Frank Berger -- Thursday, 23 July 2009, at 9:58 p.m.
    • A discrete random walk
      Maik Stiebler -- Thursday, 23 July 2009, at 10:04 p.m.
      • A discrete random walk
        Frank Berger -- Thursday, 23 July 2009, at 10:40 p.m.
        • A discrete random walk
          Maik Stiebler -- Thursday, 23 July 2009, at 11:02 p.m.
        • A discrete random walk
          Rich Munitz -- Thursday, 23 July 2009, at 11:07 p.m.
          • A discrete random walk
            Maik Stiebler -- Thursday, 23 July 2009, at 11:14 p.m.
      • A discrete random walk
        Bob Koca -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 4:03 a.m.
        • A discrete random walk
          Maik Stiebler -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 6:36 a.m.
      • A discrete random walk
        Sam Pottle -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 5:38 p.m.
    • Cube error rates
      Robert-Jan Veldhuizen (Zorba) -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 5:05 a.m.
  • I think I understand it now (request for review)
    Frank Berger -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 2:39 p.m.
    • I think I understand it now (request for review)
      Rich Munitz -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 3:24 p.m.
      • I think I understand it now (request for review)
        Frank Berger -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 3:45 p.m.
        • I think I understand it now (request for review)
          Neil Robins -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 7:18 p.m.
          • I think I understand it now (request for review)
            Frank Berger -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 11:23 p.m.
            • I think I understand it now (request for review)
              Neil Robins -- Saturday, 25 July 2009, at 10:00 a.m.
              • I think I understand it now (request for review)
                Frank Berger -- Saturday, 25 July 2009, at 3:15 p.m.
        • I think I understand it now (request for review)
          MaX -- Monday, 27 July 2009, at 10:38 a.m.
    • I think I understand it now (request for review)
      playBunny -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 3:31 p.m.
    • I think I understand it now (request for review)
      Robert-Jan Veldhuizen (Zorba) -- Saturday, 25 July 2009, at 7:41 p.m.