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I think I understand it now (request for review)

Posted By: Frank Berger
Date: Friday, 24 July 2009, at 2:39 p.m.

In Response To: Cube error rates (Joe Russell)

It's good if something is discussed to make things clear :) If s.o. beliefs I tell nonsens or err, please give feedback.

Let's start with some facts:

The doubling algorithm is more or less based on Janowski formulas. Therefore the value for double and ND is the value of the two curves (in fact straight line) at the current equity and the value shown as cubeful equities tells us the equity if I double now or double never.

BGBlitz Position Diagram If you see this text, the graphics are not found.Please set the path correctly or copy the gfh folder accordingly




top: Green 27
Pos-ID: 27YBABoDAAAEAA
bot: Red 110

e.g. green is better off about 0.1 if doubling now than by doubling never. But this values doesn't say anything what it costs to double later and it is nonsense to add up this value. Here waiting 1 roll costs nothing. IMHO it is difficult (to impossible?) to compute the cost of delaying the double for 1 roll in most non trivial situations.

let's take this position:

BGBlitz Position Diagram If you see this text, the graphics are not found.Please set the path correctly or copy the gfh folder accordingly




top: Green 128
Pos-ID: 2O0OADDYbUMDIA
bot: Red 127

The evaluation gives 0.16 for doubling now. A rollout gives about 0.081 for doubling now. The equity difference in the rollout reflects exactly (in the general limits of a rollout) the difference between doubling now and doubling one roll later. This value can and must be added, independent whether the situation reoccurs.

in one sentence: to get a reasonable ER value for an cube error you have to do a rollout.

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