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Cube error rates

Posted By: Robert-Jan Veldhuizen (Zorba)
Date: Saturday, 25 July 2009, at 7:31 p.m.

In Response To: Cube error rates (Fabrice Liardet)

In the cases where a bot says you were more than a 100% favourite (GnuBG: over +50%), it's a strange figure intuitively and far from elegant, but I wouldn't call it noise, it's more like a spread around the mean. I'm also pretty sure there's no mathematical bias, so that figures should be closer to 50-50 than what the bot reports.

Bots could cap the value at 100% and 0%, but then if you add up figures from many equivalent matches, the average wouldn't be correct anymore.

To see the problem, suppose two players differ wildy in their bg skills and play a series of very long matches too. Assume the best player is expected to win 99% of these matches.

Now obviously in every actual match, it won't come out as 99% vs. 1%. Sometimes it will be 95% vs. 5% f.i. when the match was relatively short. And sometimes it will be... 103% vs. -3%, usually when the match took longer than usual.

Messages In This Thread

• Cube error rates
  Joe Russell -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 1:37 p.m.
  • Cube error rates
    Seth -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 2:22 p.m.
  • Cube error rates
    phlegethos -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 2:33 p.m.
  • Cube error rates
    Keene -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 3:08 p.m.
    • Cube error rates
      Coolrey -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 7:23 p.m.
      • Cube error rates
        Keene -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 8:45 p.m.
        • Cube error rates
          Coolrey -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 5:09 p.m.
          • Cube error rates
            Rich Munitz -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 8:57 p.m.
  • Cube error rates
    Maik Stiebler -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 3:54 p.m.
    • Cube error rates
      Marty Storer -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 5:03 p.m.
      • Cube error rates
        Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 5:05 p.m.
        • Cube error rates
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 5:13 p.m.
        • Cube error rates
          Marty Storer -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 6:12 p.m.
          • Cube error rates
            Coolrey -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 7:05 p.m.
            • Cube error rates
              Gregg Cattanach -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 12:22 p.m.
              • Cube error rates
                Stick -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 12:41 p.m.
                • Cube error rates
                  phil Simborg -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 3:58 p.m.
                • Cube error rates
                  Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 23 July 2009, at 12:24 a.m.
            • Cube error rates
              Marty Storer -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 1:17 p.m.
              • Cube error rates (one correction)
                Marty Storer -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 1:27 p.m.
                • Cube error rates (one correction)
                  Coolrey -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 4:59 p.m.
                  • Cube error rates (one correction)
                    MaX -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 9:25 a.m.
  • Cube error rates
    Chiva Tafazzoli -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 3:54 p.m.
    • Cube error rates
      Coolrey -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 7:09 p.m.
  • Cube error rates
    Gregg Cattanach -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 5:47 p.m.
    • Cube error rates
      Frank Berger -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 7:19 p.m.
      • Cube error rates
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 7:22 p.m.
        • Cube error rates
          Coolrey -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 7:28 p.m.
          • Cube error rates
            Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 7:36 p.m.
            • Cube error rates
              Coolrey -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 7:47 p.m.
              • Cube error rates
                Jake Jacobs -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 3:35 a.m.
                • uhhhhh, kinda?
                  Coolrey -- Thursday, 23 July 2009, at 9:23 p.m.
              • Cube error rates
                phil Simborg -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 3:52 p.m.
          • Cube error rates
            Maik Stiebler -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 7:37 p.m.
            • Cube error rates
              Coolrey -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 7:43 p.m.
              • Cube error rates
                Maik Stiebler -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 8:00 a.m.
                • Cube error rates
                  Coolrey -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 4:41 p.m.
        • Cube error rates
          Frank Berger -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 7:45 p.m.
          • pointer, please
            Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 12:39 a.m.
            • pointer, please
              Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 1:57 a.m.
          • Cube error rates
            Maik Stiebler -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 8:51 a.m.
            • Cube error rates
              Frank Berger -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 10:33 a.m.
          • Cube error rates
            Joe Russell -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 1:52 p.m.
      • Cube error rates
        Gregg Cattanach -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 12:13 p.m.
        • Cube error rates
          Joe Russell -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 1:41 p.m.
          • Cube error rates
            Maik Stiebler -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 6:00 p.m.
            • Cube error rates
              Frank Berger -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 7:14 p.m.
              • Cube error rates
                Maik Stiebler -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 7:53 p.m.
          • Cube error rates
            Sam Pottle -- Thursday, 23 July 2009, at 1:44 a.m.
        • Cube error rates
          Frank Berger -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 3:54 p.m.
  • Cube error rates
    Neil Robins -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 6:04 p.m.
  • Cube error rates
    garyo -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 6:49 p.m.
  • Cube error rates
    Matt Reklaitis -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 7:48 p.m.
    • Cube error rates
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 7:56 p.m.
      • Cube error rates
        Matt Reklaitis -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 8:35 p.m.
  • Cube error rates
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 7:52 p.m.
    • Cube error rates
      Maik Stiebler -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 7:42 a.m.
    • Cube error rates
      Joe Russell -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 11:47 a.m.
      • Cube error rates
        misja -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 2:55 p.m.
      • Cube error rates
        Matt Reklaitis -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 3:58 p.m.
      • Cube error rates
        playBunny -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 5:12 p.m.
  • Cube error rates
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 12:38 p.m.
    • Cube error rates
      Joe Russell -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 1:10 p.m.
      • Cube error rates
        Robert-Jan Veldhuizen (Zorba) -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 2:28 p.m.
        • Cube error rates
          MaX -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 9:41 a.m.
  • What is the purpose of EMG? Of Snowie error rate? [longish]
    dlevy -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 3:02 p.m.
    • What is the purpose of EMG? Of Snowie error rate? [longish]
      Jason Lee -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 4:31 p.m.
      • What is the purpose of EMG? Of Snowie error rate? [longish]
        Rich Munitz -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 9:16 p.m.
        • What is the purpose of EMG? Of Snowie error rate? [longish]
          Mislav Radica -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 11:21 p.m.
    • What is the purpose of EMG? Of Snowie error rate? [longish]
      MaX -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 9:47 a.m.
  • Cube error rates
    Fabrice Liardet -- Thursday, 23 July 2009, at 11:08 a.m.
    • Cube error rates
      Gregg Cattanach -- Thursday, 23 July 2009, at 12:27 p.m.
      • Cube error rates
        Fabrice Liardet -- Thursday, 23 July 2009, at 1:58 p.m.
        • Cube error rates
          Gregg Cattanach -- Thursday, 23 July 2009, at 2:21 p.m.
          • Cube error rates
            Fabrice Liardet -- Thursday, 23 July 2009, at 2:35 p.m.
        • Cube error rates
          Fabrice Liardet -- Thursday, 23 July 2009, at 2:23 p.m.
        • Cube error rates
          Maik Stiebler -- Thursday, 23 July 2009, at 6:10 p.m.
          • Cube error rates
            Fabrice Liardet -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 10:25 a.m.
        • Cube error rates
          Gregg Cattanach -- Thursday, 23 July 2009, at 7:09 p.m.
          • Cube error rates
            Fabrice Liardet -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 10:43 a.m.
            • Cube error rates
              Maik Stiebler -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 11:39 a.m.
              • Cube error rates
                Fabrice Liardet -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 11:54 a.m.
                • Cube error rates
                  Maik Stiebler -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 12:11 p.m.
                  • Cube error rates
                    Fabrice Liardet -- Sunday, 26 July 2009, at 9:50 p.m.
                • Cube error rates
                  Robert-Jan Veldhuizen (Zorba) -- Saturday, 25 July 2009, at 7:31 p.m.
    • Cube error rates
      Joe Russell -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 3:29 a.m.
      • Cube error rates
        Matt Reklaitis -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 5:05 a.m.
        • Cube error rates
          Maik Stiebler -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 6:49 a.m.
  • Cube error rates
    Frank Berger -- Thursday, 23 July 2009, at 9:23 p.m.
    • Cube error rates
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 23 July 2009, at 9:25 p.m.
      • Cube error rates
        Frank Berger -- Thursday, 23 July 2009, at 9:55 p.m.
        • Cube error rates
          Matt Reklaitis -- Thursday, 23 July 2009, at 10:13 p.m.
          • Cube error rates
            Frank Berger -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 9:14 a.m.
            • Cube error rates
              Robert-Jan Veldhuizen (Zorba) -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 10:18 a.m.
              • Cube error rates
                Frank Berger -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 1:36 p.m.
                • Cube error rates
                  Maik Stiebler -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 2:06 p.m.
                • Cube error rates
                  Maik Stiebler -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 2:27 p.m.
                • Cube error rates
                  Joe Russell -- Saturday, 25 July 2009, at 2:48 a.m.
                  • Cube error rates
                    Joe Russell -- Saturday, 25 July 2009, at 2:51 a.m.
                  • Cube error rates
                    Joe Russell -- Saturday, 25 July 2009, at 4:14 a.m.
                    • Cube error rates
                      Bob Koca -- Saturday, 25 July 2009, at 10:01 a.m.
                      • Cube error rates
                        Joe Russell -- Saturday, 25 July 2009, at 10:35 a.m.
                        • Cube error rates
                          Bob Koca -- Saturday, 25 July 2009, at 11:09 a.m.
                • Cube error rates
                  Robert-Jan Veldhuizen (Zorba) -- Saturday, 25 July 2009, at 7:14 p.m.
                  • Cube error rates
                    Frank Berger -- Saturday, 25 July 2009, at 8:13 p.m.
                    • Cube error rates
                      Robert-Jan Veldhuizen (Zorba) -- Sunday, 26 July 2009, at 1:10 p.m.
    • Cube error rates
      Jason Lee -- Thursday, 23 July 2009, at 9:30 p.m.
      • Cube error rates
        Frank Berger -- Thursday, 23 July 2009, at 9:58 p.m.
    • A discrete random walk
      Maik Stiebler -- Thursday, 23 July 2009, at 10:04 p.m.
      • A discrete random walk
        Frank Berger -- Thursday, 23 July 2009, at 10:40 p.m.
        • A discrete random walk
          Maik Stiebler -- Thursday, 23 July 2009, at 11:02 p.m.
        • A discrete random walk
          Rich Munitz -- Thursday, 23 July 2009, at 11:07 p.m.
          • A discrete random walk
            Maik Stiebler -- Thursday, 23 July 2009, at 11:14 p.m.
      • A discrete random walk
        Bob Koca -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 4:03 a.m.
        • A discrete random walk
          Maik Stiebler -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 6:36 a.m.
      • A discrete random walk
        Sam Pottle -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 5:38 p.m.
    • Cube error rates
      Robert-Jan Veldhuizen (Zorba) -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 5:05 a.m.
  • I think I understand it now (request for review)
    Frank Berger -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 2:39 p.m.
    • I think I understand it now (request for review)
      Rich Munitz -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 3:24 p.m.
      • I think I understand it now (request for review)
        Frank Berger -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 3:45 p.m.
        • I think I understand it now (request for review)
          Neil Robins -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 7:18 p.m.
          • I think I understand it now (request for review)
            Frank Berger -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 11:23 p.m.
            • I think I understand it now (request for review)
              Neil Robins -- Saturday, 25 July 2009, at 10:00 a.m.
              • I think I understand it now (request for review)
                Frank Berger -- Saturday, 25 July 2009, at 3:15 p.m.
        • I think I understand it now (request for review)
          MaX -- Monday, 27 July 2009, at 10:38 a.m.
    • I think I understand it now (request for review)
      playBunny -- Friday, 24 July 2009, at 3:31 p.m.
    • I think I understand it now (request for review)
      Robert-Jan Veldhuizen (Zorba) -- Saturday, 25 July 2009, at 7:41 p.m.