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Its gone South.

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 20 December 2009, at 3:33 p.m.

In Response To: Its gone South. (Stick)

I agree the redouble TP (take point) at this score is a little under 28%.

Keying off your flush five-roll reference position of 28% is useful. In spite of Black's immediate miss on 43 42 41 and that misses hurt the favorite more, it looks to me that White will miss twice considerably more often than Black misses once, so it must be a theoretical drop. From your comments, I gather the bots agree it is a drop.

[Okay, I just punched it on Snowie, which claims it to be 25.9%, for what that's worth. I don't know how to look it up with Gnu -- no dice on board makes it crash. But that number sounds about right.]

I have little idea of Neil's edge over Keene, but if it's 200 Elo points, I'll cut that in half and use the 100-point table (because it seems to me, however well researched, that somehow the tables published in the Fish book overstate skill adjustment). There, -6-8 is shaved to 57.4%, and -2-10 to 91.4%, for a TP of only 18%!

Even if we cut the ELO difference in half again (using the 50-point table), -6-8 is 58.4%, -2-10 is 92.3%, and the TP is 20%. (It seems peculiar in the non-linear sense that 0-difference yields a TP of 28%, 50-dif yields 20%, and 100-dif yields 18%, but what do I know.)

Anyway, that seems to be confirmation that Keene should take this redouble against Neil, as you said.

Nack

Messages In This Thread

• Its gone South.
  Keene -- Sunday, 20 December 2009, at 4:38 a.m.
  • Its gone South.
    John O'Hagan -- Sunday, 20 December 2009, at 5:07 a.m.
    • Its gone South.
      Stick -- Sunday, 20 December 2009, at 1:18 p.m.
      • Its gone South.
        John O'Hagan -- Sunday, 20 December 2009, at 4:18 p.m.
  • Its gone South.
    Stick -- Sunday, 20 December 2009, at 1:28 p.m.
    • Its gone South.
      Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 20 December 2009, at 3:33 p.m.
      • Some Bot Info
        Stick -- Sunday, 20 December 2009, at 4:06 p.m.
  • Its gone South. ROLLOUT
    Keene -- Wednesday, 23 December 2009, at 4:27 a.m.
    • Its gone South. ROLLOUT
      Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 23 December 2009, at 5:08 a.m.
    • Its gone South. ROLLOUT
      Stick -- Wednesday, 23 December 2009, at 10:18 a.m.