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Zeus Question: value of time-outs

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Thursday, 7 January 2010, at 12:16 a.m.

In Response To: Zeus Question: value of time-outs (Gregg Cattanach)

Tie score, two equal (average, generic) NFL teams, 10 minutes remaining in 3rd Q:

1st and 10 at the 50, 3 TO's for each team -- 57.3% GWC;

1st and 10 at the 50, 2 TO's for offense, 3 TO's for defense -- 56.7% GWC;

1st and 15 at the (own) 45, 3 TO's for each -- 55.4% GWC;

statistical standard deviation = 0.16% GWC for each.

So it looks like in this instance that it's better to burn a TO than surrender 5 yards to a delay-of-game penalty. Best of all -- be ready to play and don't do either.

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