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-3, -6 cube action

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Monday, 15 March 2010, at 10:12 p.m.

In Response To: -3, -6 cube action (christian munk-christensen)

ATS, the trailer's gammonless 2-cube takepoint is around 29% - a little higher than the normal 25% since Blue's lead isn't overwhelming and a 2-point win takes him to Crawford. L's 4-cube takepoint in the 26-27% area. How about g's? Neither side wins many but Blue certainly wins more than White. OTOH, the 2-cube gammon prices favor the trailer ATS, so the net effect is probably close to a wash.

So, assuming 70% efficiency, the trailer needs around 23.5% cubeless chances to take this cube. Does he win this often? Those dead checkers on the ace hurt his race and he rates to waste some more next time. More burial will reduce both his racing chances and his containment chances if he hits a shot. Despite these negatives, I still think it's a take.

Should Blue double? I think technically the answer is yes but a lot of players take way too deep ATS so if you're playing one of them, I'd wait and hope to get an incorrect take later.

Messages In This Thread

• -3, -6 cube action
  christian munk-christensen -- Monday, 15 March 2010, at 8:45 p.m.
  • -3, -6 cube action
    Stick -- Monday, 15 March 2010, at 9:59 p.m.
  • -3, -6 cube action
    John O'Hagan -- Monday, 15 March 2010, at 10:12 p.m.
    • -3, -6 cube action
      Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 16 March 2010, at 12:23 a.m.
      • -3, -6 cube action
        John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 16 March 2010, at 4:22 a.m.
        • -3, -6 cube action
          Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 16 March 2010, at 4:35 a.m.
        • -3, -6 cube action
          Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 16 March 2010, at 1:21 p.m.
  • -3, -6 cube action
    Chase -- Tuesday, 16 March 2010, at 12:09 a.m.