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Play preference/ Rollout ?

Posted By: Chase
Date: Tuesday, 30 March 2010, at 8:40 p.m.

In Response To: Play preference/ Rollout ? (Seth)

I'm only 4 pips down after this move, and I'd hate to be stuck on the 23pt when 55 or 66 pops out of my baffly box. But the position is a bit unwieldly after b/21(2), with a tower on the 6pt and a stripped midpoint.

On the other hand, 6/4(2) plays so nicely. It unstacks perfectly to a point I'd really like to make and gives me priming potential when I'm behind in the race and White has two checkers parked on his 1pt and a stripped outfield. Seems close, but I like this play. Let him try to out-prime me.

Regarding your rollout, I haven't used Gnu in a while, but I think the 0.022 and the 0.016 are the margin of error numbers. That means Gnu thinks the equity of the top move is between 0.179 and 0.223 and the equity of the second move falls between 0.174 and 0.206. There's quite a lot of overlap there, so I don't feel like the rollout tells us much since the moves are coming in only 0.011 apart. A longer rollout would tighten up the margins of error, hopefully to the point where there's no overlap, or at least until the overlap is smaller than the difference between the two plays. However, with plays this close, if I was going to spend the CPU time on it, rather than extend this rollout I'd start a new one using 2-ply, which should be more accurate.

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