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Which play is better based upon rollouts

Posted By: Michael Depreli
Date: Tuesday, 27 April 2010, at 8:47 a.m.

In Response To: Which play is better based upon rollouts (David Rockwell)

Michael - Do GNU 2-ply or Snowie 3-ply play well enough to give the opening and 2nd move junkies the precision they're looking for?

David - usually. But, when they give different results, that is a red flag.

Sure as pointed out with 41$11

If you rolled out an opening 21 $,S & U using Gnu 0-ply and Snowie 1-ply 1.296 million trials and the results ranked them statistically significant S $ U doesn't make them "correct".

If GNU 2-ply and Snowie 3-ply have 2 opening move rollouts stastically tied (no red flag) doesn't guarantee that's correct either but as you pointed out maybe it's close enough for humans not to be concerned about.

BTW has anyone calculated opening rolls by averaging all the correct 2nd roll rolled out responses where the choices are close e.g. opening 43?

Michael

Messages In This Thread

• Which play is better based upon rollouts
  Seth -- Monday, 26 April 2010, at 1:24 p.m.
  • Which play is better based upon rollouts
    Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 26 April 2010, at 5:14 p.m.
  • 41$-11
    neilkaz -- Monday, 26 April 2010, at 5:30 p.m.
  • Which play is better based upon rollouts
    Stick -- Monday, 26 April 2010, at 6:38 p.m.
    • Which play is better based upon rollouts
      David Rockwell -- Monday, 26 April 2010, at 7:40 p.m.
      • Which play is better based upon rollouts
        Michael Depreli -- Monday, 26 April 2010, at 8:53 p.m.
        • Which play is better based upon rollouts
          Timothy Chow -- Monday, 26 April 2010, at 9:41 p.m.
          • Which play is better based upon rollouts
            Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 26 April 2010, at 9:47 p.m.
            • Which play is better based upon rollouts
              Michael Depreli -- Tuesday, 27 April 2010, at 12:39 p.m.
              • Which play is better based upon rollouts
                David Rockwell -- Tuesday, 27 April 2010, at 1:17 p.m.
                • Which play is better based upon rollouts
                  Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 27 April 2010, at 3:14 p.m.
          • Which play is better based upon rollouts
            Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 26 April 2010, at 10:26 p.m.
            • Which play is better based upon rollouts
              Timothy Chow -- Monday, 26 April 2010, at 11:08 p.m.
              • Which play is better based upon rollouts
                Stick -- Monday, 26 April 2010, at 11:18 p.m.
                • Which play is better based upon rollouts
                  David Rockwell -- Tuesday, 27 April 2010, at 2:19 a.m.
                  • Which play is better based upon rollouts
                    Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 27 April 2010, at 2:41 a.m.
        • Which play is better based upon rollouts
          David Rockwell -- Tuesday, 27 April 2010, at 2:22 a.m.
          • Which play is better based upon rollouts
            Michael Depreli -- Tuesday, 27 April 2010, at 8:47 a.m.
            • Which play is better based upon rollouts
              David Rockwell -- Tuesday, 27 April 2010, at 12:47 p.m.
  • 41$-11 data (to date)
    Nack Ballard -- Monday, 26 April 2010, at 7:41 p.m.
  • Thanks *NM*
    Seth -- Monday, 26 April 2010, at 8:07 p.m.