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Position Classique, Coup Classique, or Whatever the Correct Name Is

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Monday, 3 May 2010, at 11:16 p.m.

In Response To: Position Classique, Coup Classique, or Whatever the Correct Name Is (Bill Riles)

Is it worth staying if the bg costs you the match?

It depends on the score. At 8-8/13 I'd stay. At 13-9/15 I'd run.

If (assumption) Stay -> BG 18%, Save gammon 32%, Win 0%

Then

at 8-8/13 you're risking 18%*16* = 2.9% ME to gain 34%*19% = 6.5% ME. Staying gains 3.6% ME.

But

at 13-9/15 you're risking 18%*50% = 9% ME to gain 34%*17% = 5.8% ME. Staying loses 3.2% ME.

Instead of those assumptions, we can plug in estaimtes for how often Blue actually wins, loses gammon or loses backgammon if he stays.

If Blue had a perfect board, I'll use these bot results:

Run -> Lose gammon 100% -> 16% ME at 8-8/13, 50% ME at 13-9/15.

Stay -> Win 7%, Lose Single 25% Lose gammon 60%, Lose backgammon 18%

-> at 8-8/13

(7% * 100%) + (25% * 35%) + (60% * 16%) + (18% * 0%) = 25% ME

-> at 13-9/15

(7% * 100%) + (25% * 67%) + (60% * 50%) + (18% * 0%) = 48% ME

So, at 8-8/13, staying is clearly right, and at 13-9/15, running is slightly right.

However, Blue didn't have a perfect board. In the actual position, staying won't win 7%, and will lose more than 60% gammons and 18% backgammons, since hitting won't guarantee saving either of them.

Without plugging in guesstimates of how Blue would do with his actual 6-5-4-1 board (5-5 has made the acepoint), I'm going to stop here and guess that staying is still pretty clearly right at 8-8/13, and more wrong at 13-9/15.

Messages In This Thread

• Position Classique, Coup Classique, or Whatever the Correct Name Is
  Bill Riles -- Monday, 3 May 2010, at 7:28 p.m.
  • Position Classique, Coup Classique, or Whatever the Correct Name Is
    neilkaz -- Monday, 3 May 2010, at 7:37 p.m.
    • Position Classique, Coup Classique, or Whatever the Correct Name Is
      Bill Riles -- Monday, 3 May 2010, at 7:48 p.m.
      • Position Classique, Coup Classique, or Whatever the Correct Name Is
        Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 3 May 2010, at 7:57 p.m.
        • Position Classique, Coup Classique, or Whatever the Correct Name Is
          Bill Riles -- Monday, 3 May 2010, at 8:09 p.m.
          • Position Classique, Coup Classique, or Whatever the Correct Name Is
            Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 3 May 2010, at 8:26 p.m.
            • Position Classique, Coup Classique, or Whatever the Correct Name Is
              Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 3 May 2010, at 8:35 p.m.
      • Approximate position
        Timothy Chow -- Monday, 3 May 2010, at 8:14 p.m.
        • Approximate position
          Bill Riles -- Monday, 3 May 2010, at 8:15 p.m.
        • Approximate position
          Sam Pottle -- Monday, 3 May 2010, at 11:52 p.m.
          • Approximate position
            Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 3 May 2010, at 11:58 p.m.
      • Position Classique, Coup Classique, or Whatever the Correct Name Is
        Steve Mellen -- Monday, 3 May 2010, at 10:04 p.m.
  • Position Classique, Coup Classique, or Whatever the Correct Name Is
    Jason Lee -- Monday, 3 May 2010, at 8:15 p.m.
    • Position Classique, Coup Classique, or Whatever the Correct Name Is
      Timothy Chow -- Monday, 3 May 2010, at 8:33 p.m.
  • Position Classique, Coup Classique, or Whatever the Correct Name Is
    Bob Koca -- Monday, 3 May 2010, at 8:21 p.m.
  • Position Classique, Coup Classique, or Whatever the Correct Name Is
    trichard -- Monday, 3 May 2010, at 8:47 p.m.
    • Position Classique, Coup Classique, or Whatever the Correct Name Is
      Bill Riles -- Monday, 3 May 2010, at 9:01 p.m.
      • Position Classique, Coup Classique, or Whatever the Correct Name Is
        Jason Lee -- Monday, 3 May 2010, at 9:50 p.m.
        • Position Classique, Coup Classique, or Whatever the Correct Name Is
          KenB -- Tuesday, 4 May 2010, at 12:16 a.m.
          • Position Classique, Coup Classique, or Whatever the Correct Name Is
            Jason Lee -- Tuesday, 4 May 2010, at 12:36 a.m.
      • Bot content
        Timothy Chow -- Monday, 3 May 2010, at 10:11 p.m.
      • Position Classique, Coup Classique, or Whatever the Correct Name Is
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 3 May 2010, at 10:36 p.m.
      • Position Classique, Coup Classique, or Whatever the Correct Name Is
        Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 3 May 2010, at 11:16 p.m.
  • Position Classique, Coup Classique, or Whatever the Correct Name Is
    phil Simborg -- Tuesday, 4 May 2010, at 9:18 a.m.