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Score based late blitz cube from SFO

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Monday, 24 May 2010, at 7:14 p.m.

In Response To: Score based late blitz cube from SFO (neilkaz)

This would be a huge pass at most scores but ATS the trailer's redoubles drastically reduce the value of Neil's gammons and enhance his own. My OTB estimates of the 4-cube gammon prices ATS are around 12% for the leader and 80% for the trailer so let's see what the trailer's takepoint is assuming he redoubles to 4 on his next shake (clearly not the optimal strategy of course): Drop is 0-5 with about 22% MWC, take and lose is 0-8 Crawford with about 6% MWC, take and win ties the score with 50% MWC, take and lose a g loses the match with 0% MWC, take and win a g makes it 8-4 Crawford with 82% MWC. The takepoint is then roughly 36% + 12%*55% - 80%*5% = ~38.5%. If the trailer is more prudent and only redoubles at the appropriate time, he can usually shave 2-3% off of this figure meaning he would need around 36% cubeless winning chances to take this cube. Here he's only about 31%, so it's a pass but not the monster pass you would usually expect when the oppt wins 50%+ net g's and you only win 31% of the time.

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