Fairly close between these four plays. (No one that I recall mentioned making the 3-point.) Even this kind of result can indicate something -- that this decision is on the cusp. Although Bosco's blot creates opportunities for playing looser than otherwise appropriate in a dual holding game, there just isn't a strong enough argument for making a bold play (such as giving up the anchor -- still a pretty decent move, though).
In the actual game I made the popular play and when opp put another blot in its homeboard next time (roll being 4-3) I ran off the anchor with the (more comfortable) 5-2 roll.
          
    
         
 |  is Professional
score: 1
pip: 164 | | Money session | pip: 132
score: 0
 is c_ray |
|
| XGID=-B--cBCAB---cC--bb-dBa----:1:-1:1:54:0:1:0:0:10 |
| to play 54 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/8 7/3 | eq: +0.095 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.83% (G:16.07% B:0.47%)
41.17% (G:8.03% B:0.39%) | Conf: ± 0.005 (+0.090...+0.100)
Duration: 2 hours 49 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 7/2 6/2 | eq: +0.083 (-0.012) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 59.02% (G:14.66% B:0.42%)
40.98% (G:8.55% B:0.39%) | Conf: ± 0.005 (+0.078...+0.088)
Duration: 2 hours 34 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 8/3 7/3 | eq: +0.075 (-0.020) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.39% (G:15.33% B:0.44%)
41.61% (G:8.14% B:0.39%) | Conf: ± 0.005 (+0.070...+0.080)
Duration: 2 hours 22 minutes |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 20/11 | eq: +0.065 (-0.030) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.16% (G:17.28% B:0.57%)
41.84% (G:9.83% B:0.52%) | Conf: ± 0.006 (+0.059...+0.071)
Duration: 3 hours 17 minutes |
|
| |
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14