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2 off and closeout threat. cube action -RO

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Saturday, 12 June 2010, at 4:56 p.m.

In Response To: 2 off and closeout threat. cube action (Daniel Murphy)

White	67
Blue	117
Position ID: /H4AANC2NgIACw Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

Here are two rollouts, at the original 9-away 9-away score and for money. The score makes a difference -- Double/Take for money, Double/Pass at the score.

Take a sequence like Blue 6-2 ... White 5-4 ... Blue 6-2. For money White can redouble (Blue will take) as a 60/40 favorite with large gammon chances. At the score White can't redouble -- Blue would have an easy take based on his own GWC, but doubling to 8 nearly kills White's gammon equity. In some other sequences favorable to White, White might double Blue out in a money game (because of his large gammon chances) but again Blue can take because of his own GWC.

Gnubg on most plies misses the double almost entirely.

9-away all

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.4392	(Money: +0.4386)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.0000
2.	Double, take	+1.0524	+0.0524
3.	No double	+0.8617	-0.1383
Proper cube action:		Redouble, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player Blue owns 2-cube 0.7642 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2358 0.0825 0.0073 +0.4392 +0.8617 Standard error 0.0029 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0029 0.0019 0.0012 0.0063 0.0143 Player White owns 4-cube 0.8072 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.1928 0.0812 0.0152 +1.1303 +1.0524 Standard error 0.0024 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0024 0.0018 0.0023 0.0117 0.0132
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
585 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 893320934 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Annotation

2-ply cubeless equity +0.2863 (Money: +0.2925)
0.6872 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.3128 0.0792 0.0029
1. No double +0.5600
2. Double pass +1.0000 ( +0.4400)
3. Double, take +0.4420 ( -0.1180)
Proper cube action: No redouble, take (21.1%)

3-ply cubeless equity +0.4112 (Money: +0.4174)
0.7500 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2500 0.0787 0.0039
1. Double, take +0.7567
2. Double, pass +1.0000 ( +0.2433)
3. No double +0.7176 ( -0.0391)
Proper cube action: Redouble, take

4-ply cubeless equity +0.3320 (Money: +0.3385)
0.7121 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2879 0.0822 0.0034
1. No double +0.6166
2. Double, pass +1.0000 ( +0.3834)
3. Double, take +0.5641 ( -0.0525)
Proper cube action: No redouble, take (12.0%)

Money game

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.4387
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.9583
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.0417
3.	No double	+0.8313	-0.1271
Proper cube action:		Redouble, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player Blue owns 2-cube 0.7613 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2387 0.0783 0.0055 +0.4387 +0.8313 Standard error 0.0020 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0020 0.0010 0.0003 0.0041 0.0097 Player White owns 4-cube 0.8010 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.1990 0.0741 0.0054 +1.0450 +0.9583 Standard error 0.0017 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0017 0.0010 0.0003 0.0073 0.0118
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 892938228 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Annotation

2-ply cubeless equity +0.2925
0.6872 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.3128 0.0792 0.0029
1. No double +0.5508
2. Double, pass +1.0000 ( +0.4492)
3. Double, take +0.3765 ( -0.1743)
Proper cube action: No redouble, take (28.0%)

3-ply cubeless equity +0.4176
0.7498 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2502 0.0781 0.0039
1. No double +0.6933
2. Double, pass +1.0000 ( +0.3067)
3. Double, take +0.6612 ( -0.0321)
Proper cube action: No redouble, take (9.5%)

4-ply cubeless equity +0.3381
0.7117 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2883 0.0819 0.0034
1. No double +0.6022
2. Double, pass +1.0000 ( +0.3978)
3. Double, take +0.4801 ( -0.1221)
Proper cube action: No redouble, take (23.5%)

Messages In This Thread

• 2 off and closeout threat. cube action
  Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 9 June 2010, at 12:34 a.m.
  • 2 off and closeout threat. cube action
    Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 9 June 2010, at 7:24 a.m.
  • 2 off and closeout threat. cube action
    Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 9 June 2010, at 10:07 a.m.
  • 2 off and closeout threat. cube action
    neilkaz -- Thursday, 10 June 2010, at 4:28 p.m.
  • 2 off and closeout threat. cube action -RO
    Daniel Murphy -- Saturday, 12 June 2010, at 4:56 p.m.
    • 2 off and closeout threat. cube action -RO
      Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 12 June 2010, at 11:04 p.m.
      • 2 off and closeout threat. cube action -RO
        Daniel Murphy -- Saturday, 12 June 2010, at 11:19 p.m.
        • 2 off and closeout threat. cube action -RO
          Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 13 June 2010, at 8:04 p.m.
          • 2 off and closeout threat. cube action -RO
            Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 13 June 2010, at 8:25 p.m.