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BGonline.org Forums
Maybe I need to use something...recube from LA Masters Semis
Posted By: John O'Hagan In Response To: Maybe I need to use something...recube from LA Masters Semis (neilkaz)
Date: Tuesday, 15 June 2010, at 9:10 p.m.
Let's see. Choc's basic 4-cube takepoint ATS is approx 26%, cream's 8-cube takepoint (on anything but a last roll position) is around 15%. Since choc is ahead by a non-trivial amount on the score, I'll use 50% recube efficiency rather than the normal 70% which means choc needs around 24% cubeless chances to take this recube.
The Ward count says to add 1 penalty pip to choc's side making the pc 18-18. Kleinman's formula for an 18-18 race gives the trailer around 30% chances which would be an easy take ATS. This doesn't look correct to me so I'd try Seret's pipple count formula even though it's only supposed to apply to positions with 7 or more checkers each and pc's between 30 & 70. FWIW, Seret's formula suggests R/P for money which makes it a bigger pass ATS. Another method would be to estimate each side's EPC (or Trice count if you prefer) by adding the wastage to the raw pc. Light has a low wastage position while choc is a little worse in this regard. I'll guess 5/6 wasted pips for light/choc which gives each side a Trice count of 23. Walter's rule of thumb is that the trailer's point of last take (for money) was leader's # of rolls minus 3. Light has about a 3 roll position here so choc needs to be tied or better to have a money take. This suggests a marginal take/pass for money which makes it a pass ATS.
So 2/3 say R/P and that looks right to me.
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