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Maybe I need to use something...recube from LA Masters Semis

Posted By: bob koca
Date: Tuesday, 15 June 2010, at 9:33 p.m.

In Response To: Maybe I need to use something...recube from LA Masters Semis (John O'Hagan)

"The Ward count says to add 1 penalty pip to choc's side making the pc 18-18. Kleinman's formula for an 18-18 race gives the trailer around 30% chances which would be an easy take ATS. This doesn't look correct to me "

Another way to think about the Ward adjustment here is to think that in effect the Ward adjustment to the actual chocolate position makes it equivalent to white's position. In actuality though changing chocolate to white's position is a big improvement for him.

"Walter's rule of thumb is that the trailer's point of last take (for money) was leader's # of rolls minus 3. Light has about a 3 roll position here so choc needs to be tied or better to have a money take. "

Light has a 3 roll position in terms of EPC but the variability isn't right. I think that rule of thumb will undervalues the chances of the trailer here.

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