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XG Luck Factor Question - Xavier - do you know what is "normal"?

Posted By: Rich Munitz
Date: Monday, 23 August 2010, at 2:08 p.m.

In Response To: XG Luck Factor Question - Xavier - do you know what is "normal"? (Timothy Chow)

"The trouble with this approach is that the luck factor of bot-versus-bot matches may differ significantly from the luck factor of human-versus-human matches."

This is true. And human vs. bot may also differ significantly as compared to human vs human. And human player #1 vs human player #2 may also differ significantly as compared to average human player vs average human player. Ultimately, this effect will not be due to the "luck", but rather the tendency of two opponents to drift towards more or less volatile positions. For example, if a particular human always tries to play a backgame, and we know that backgame positions tend to have very low volatility, we should observe a low average luck factor simply because there are many moves in the match during which the dice can produce very little effect on the game equity.

But it seems that bot vs. bot gives a useful and easily measurable baseline. If the SHG luck analysis winds up close to the baseline, then it seems reasonable to reject the hypothesis that it generates abnormal luck.

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