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A Football Question For Chuck (And Others)

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Sunday, 19 September 2010, at 12:38 a.m.

In Response To: A Football Question For Chuck (And Others) (trichard)

It's that season again, and all too often we're going to hear sportscasters proclaim that “time of possession” is important in winning games.

Whether it's true or not, I can just about guarantee that these wisemen behind the microphones have no evidence and are just quoting "conventional wisdom" (quite the irony in that term, as usual).

As an aside in parallel to your "chicken and egg theory" regarding time of possession and wins, there was a study by Football Outsiders a few years ago which showed that the reason winning teams have more running yards than losing teams is because in the second half, when they are already winning, they run the ball to burn clock whereas the teams which are behind are more prone to passing. (Besides using less clock per play, passing also gains more yards per play -- critical when available time is running short.)

But if you ask most NFL coaches, they'll argue that "establishing the running game" is the key to winning, and use the "winning teams have more running yards per game than losing teams" as evidence. I guess that's why the Colts have led the league in accumulated wins summed over the last 10 years -- because of their running game.

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