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A Football Question For Chuck (And Others)

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Sunday, 26 September 2010, at 12:57 a.m.

In Response To: A Football Question For Chuck (And Others) (Casper van der Tak)

From day 1 Frank and I saw the danger in assuming that a technical solution for run vs. pass (the most common offensive decision) could easily be solved by a computer. That is why we emphasized "critical calls" (our definition) of 4th downs, points-after-touchdown, and kickoff situations. 90+% of the time (in the NFL, anyway), the defense can tell from your formation what you are going to do in these critical call situations. (Specifically, kicking formations are a lot different than running/passing formations.) For 4th downs, we tend to average the run/pass equity unless the yards-to-go is considerable (in which case running is out-boarded, so to speak. :)

As far as whether to run or pass (1st downs for sure, and probably most 2nd downs), I think the best method would be random sampling. That's NOT what the NFL does. In particular, on 2nd and ~10 (i.e. little was gained/lost on 1st down), most teams just do the OPPOSITE of what they did on 1st down. Why? Ask them!

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