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Lower OT coefficient -- backgammon software analogy

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Tuesday, 26 October 2010, at 8:49 p.m.

In Response To: Lower OT coefficient -- backgammon software analogy (Daniel Murphy)

I'll be giving some info in the other thread (that Paul started). Maybe that will answer your first question.

Coaches mostly use the same (flawed) table. Some use Vermeil, some a modification.

The biggest problem with their tables is that they assume it's late in the game AND opponent will never score again. (Many, maybe most coaches know the table is for late in the game, but they don't have a table for earlier in the game, nor do they know when 'early' transitions to 'late'.)

We've studied this somewhat (actually in response to Steve Fairchild's request) and shown that at some score differences it's very dependent upon time of the game. (FYI, Steve Fairchild was Offensive Coordinator at St. Louis under Martz, then moved to Buffalo taking the same job when Martz left StL, and now is head coach at Colorado State.)

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