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Nine 5k results (report)

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Monday, 17 January 2011, at 3:20 p.m.

In Response To: Opening 52 at 4 away 4 away - extended (Stick)

[S D29] 5k
[S D25] 10k
[S D23] 15k
[S D23] 20k
[S D19] 25k
[S D21] 31k
[S D18] 36k
[S D17] 41k
[S D18.75] 46k

Above, I've pasted Stick's progress reports at each 5k (i.e., 5184-trial) interval. When observing small changes from one level to the next, it might not be easy to grasp his underlying point unless you do the arithmetic.

Stick's final result (looking at the actual rollout output) had equities of .008 and -.010, but it reported a difference of .019 (due to rounding). By the logic that I presented here, the fairest estimate is that the difference is .01875. Using that (and assuming the previous margins are exactly as he reported), below is the number of thousandths by which S beats D in what were essentially nine separate 5k rollouts:

29, 21, 19, 23, 3, 31, 0, 10, 33

Translated to decimal equities, I'm repeating those numbers in a column below:

.029
.021
.019
.023
.003
.031
.000
.010
.033

The order in which the 5k rollout segments occurred doesn't matter. For convenience, here are the margins reordered by (ascending) size:

.000
.003
.010
.019
.021
.023
.029
.031
.033

Imagine that nine people had each done one independent 5k rollout (of opening 52 at –4–4) and then combined them; it's the same thing. One person got a margin of .000 (an exact tie) for the two plays — i.e., [S=D], and another person got a margin of .033 — i.e., [S D33]. This could just as easily happen at 3-ply, 4-ply or any ply.

Nack

Messages In This Thread

• Opening 52 at 4 away 4 away
  Stick -- Saturday, 15 January 2011, at 9:00 p.m.
  • Opening 52 at 4 away 4 away
    neilkaz -- Saturday, 15 January 2011, at 9:37 p.m.
  • Stat sig
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 16 January 2011, at 2:35 p.m.
  • Opening 52 at 4 away 4 away - extended
    Stick -- Monday, 17 January 2011, at 9:55 a.m.
    • Nine 5k results (report)
      Nack Ballard -- Monday, 17 January 2011, at 3:20 p.m.
      • Nine 5k results (report) - that why people need to check SI
        eXtreme Gammon -- Monday, 17 January 2011, at 6:00 p.m.
        • Nine 5k results (report) - that why people need to check SI
          Stick -- Monday, 17 January 2011, at 6:15 p.m.
          • Nine 5k results (report) - that why people need to check SI
            eXtreme Gammon -- Monday, 17 January 2011, at 6:56 p.m.
            • Nine 5k results (report) - that why people need to check SI
              Nack Ballard -- Monday, 17 January 2011, at 10:59 p.m.
            • Nine 5k results (report) - that why people need to check SI
              Neil Robins -- Tuesday, 18 January 2011, at 9:34 p.m.
              • Nine 5k results (report) - that why people need to check SI
                eXtreme Gammon -- Wednesday, 19 January 2011, at 4:47 a.m.
                • Nine 5k results (report) - that why people need to check SI
                  Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 19 January 2011, at 2:33 p.m.
              • Nine 5k results (report) - that why people need to check SI
                Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 19 January 2011, at 9:10 p.m.
        • You mean CI *NM*
          neilkaz -- Monday, 17 January 2011, at 6:41 p.m.
          • You mean CI - I did indeed *NM*
            eXtreme Gammon -- Monday, 17 January 2011, at 6:56 p.m.
        • Nine 5k results (report) - that why people need to check SI
          Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 18 January 2011, at 5:30 p.m.
      • Nine 5k results (report)
        Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 17 January 2011, at 9:43 p.m.