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Pure play vs Tactical play (ROLLOUTS after FAN)

Posted By: Carlo Melzi
Date: Wednesday, 22 June 2011, at 3:32 p.m.

In Response To: Pure play vs Tactical play (Carlo Melzi)

That is an interesting question indeed; please find my rollouts below (how do you visualize one next to the other, btw?)

It seems like the position is a Double IN after the tactical play 4/2*/1-FAN (eq. after D/T = 0.885) and a Double OUT after the strategical play 6/5 4/2*-FAN.

What do I make of it? Cashing 1 point is better that doubling black into a Take, which would support the pure play.

That makes sense: if we knew that Black will dance, the pure play is obviously superior. The main factor in favour of the tactical play is that we are still alive after a hit on the Ace-point.

Neil, can you please elaborate further?

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 104
Money session
Beaver
pip: 123
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=aA-BBBCB---a--a---bbbdC-b-:0:0:1:00:0:0:2:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 65,26% (G: 30,28% B: 1,54%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34,74% (G: 8,96% B: 0,29%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65,88% (G: 32,63% B: 1,77%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34,12% (G: 9,23% B: 0,29%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0,531
Double:+1,133
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0,643 (-0,242)
Double/Take:+0,885
Double/Drop:+1,000 (+0,115)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60593785
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0,014 (+0,628...+0,657)
Confidence Double: ± 0,023 (+0,862...+0,908)
Double Decision confidence: 100,0%
Take Decision confidence: 100,0%
Duration: 10 minutes 13 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 104
Money session
Beaver
pip: 123
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=a-ABBCBB---a--a---bbbdC-b-:0:0:1:00:0:0:2:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 69,01% (G: 33,16% B: 1,74%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30,99% (G: 7,65% B: 0,26%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 69,70% (G: 35,58% B: 1,83%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30,30% (G: 7,73% B: 0,27%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0,650
Double:+1,376
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0,795 (-0,205)
Double/Take:+1,153 (+0,153)
Double/Drop:+1,000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60593785
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0,013 (+0,782...+0,808)
Confidence Double: ± 0,027 (+1,125...+1,180)
Double Decision confidence: 100,0%
Take Decision confidence: 100,0%
Duration: 7 minutes 02 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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