BGonline.org Forums

OT -- Absurd Baseball Hypothetical

Posted By: Joe Russell
Date: Monday, 27 June 2011, at 1:01 p.m.

In Response To: OT -- Absurd Baseball Hypothetical (Jason Lee)

I think analyzing a few score and base situations will help answer your question. All winning percentages come from tables in The Book, Playing the Percentages in Baseball.

What are the best situations for the super pitcher(SP) and the always walks batter(AWB)?

Below I will list base situations as 1 for a man on 1st, 2 for a man on 2nd, 3 for a man on 3rd and 0 to 2, in brackets, for the number of outs. I will list the gain for using the SP in the situation, for using the AWB, and the net of the gain of using the SP subtracted by the gain of using the AWB . In all situations the visiting team is leading by one run and it is the bottom of the ninth:

No outs:

OOO (0)= nobody on... SP = .095 AWB = .134 (-.039)

100 (0)= man on first... SP = .128 AWB = .184 (-.056)

020 (0)= man on 2nd... SP = .166 AWB = .075 (+.091)

003 (0) ........................SP = .154 AWB = .061 (+.093)

120 (0) ........................SP = .184 AWB = .214 (-.030)

103 (0) ........................SP = .166 AWB = .087 (+.079)

023 (0) ........................SP = .182 AWB = .013 (+.169)

123 (0) ........................SP = .195 AWB = .187 (+.008)

One out:

OOO (1)= nobody on... SP = .072 AWB = .101 (-.029)

100 (1)= man on first... SP = .121 AWB = .128 (-.007)

020 (1)= man on 2nd... SP = .145 AWB = .057 (+.088)

003 (1) ........................SP = .257 AWB = .049 (+.208)

120 (1) ........................SP = .174 AWB = .203 (-.029)

103 (1) ........................SP = .263 AWB = .088 (+.175)

023 (1) ........................SP = .304 AWB = .000 (+.304)

123 (1) ........................SP = .273 AWB = .285 (+.012)

Two outs:

OOO (2)= nobody on ... SP = .052 AWB = .052 (-.000)

100 (2)= man on first ... SP = .104 AWB = .075 (+.029)

020 (2)= man on 2nd ... SP = .151 AWB = .028 (+.123)

003 (2) ........................SP = .172 AWB = .043 (+.129)

120 (2) ........................SP = .179 AWB = .104 (+.075)

103 (2) ........................SP = .215 AWB = .068 (+.147)

023 (2) ........................SP = .252 AWB = .031 (+.221)

123 (2) ........................SP = .283 AWB = .382 (-.099)

A cursory glance at the numbers will show that the gains of using the SP occur in more situations and the advantages are much larger than when the AWB has the edge. But, this is not all there is to the answer. The frequency of each situation must be analyzed as well. The most frequently occurring situations are the ones that favor the AWB, such as 000 (0), which occurs 100% of the time. By analyzing the tables and using a risk/reward analysis, one could likely decide when the best time to employ each would be and this may more easily illuminate the answer.

Perhaps, I will do this in the near future.

Messages In This Thread

• OT -- Absurd Baseball Hypothetical
  Jason Lee -- Monday, 27 June 2011, at 2:14 a.m.
  • OT -- Absurd Baseball Hypothetical
    Lucas Bauer -- Monday, 27 June 2011, at 2:34 a.m.
    • OT -- Absurd Baseball Hypothetical
      Bob Koca -- Monday, 27 June 2011, at 3:17 a.m.
  • OT -- Absurd Baseball Hypothetical
    Bob Koca -- Monday, 27 June 2011, at 3:29 a.m.
  • OT -- Absurd Baseball Hypothetical
    Joe Russell -- Monday, 27 June 2011, at 1:01 p.m.
    • OT -- Absurd Baseball Hypothetical
      Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 28 June 2011, at 3:50 a.m.
      • OT -- Absurd Baseball Hypothetical
        Joe Russell -- Tuesday, 28 June 2011, at 10:09 a.m.
        • OT -- Absurd Baseball Hypothetical
          Joe Russell -- Tuesday, 28 June 2011, at 4:21 p.m.
      • OT -- Absurd Baseball Hypothetical
        Jason Lee -- Tuesday, 28 June 2011, at 10:38 a.m.
  • OT -- Absurd Baseball Hypothetical
    Rich Munitz -- Thursday, 30 June 2011, at 3:58 a.m.
    • OT -- Absurd Baseball Hypothetical
      Bob Koca -- Thursday, 30 June 2011, at 4:29 a.m.
  • OT -- Absurd Baseball Hypothetical
    Stick -- Thursday, 30 June 2011, at 4:30 a.m.