Game number 3

The score (after 2 games) is: kit&stick 1, ed&howard 1 (match to 19 points)

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Move number 1: ed&howard to play 31

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: kit&stick 167, ed&howard 167
Position ID: 4HPwATDgc/ABMA Match ID: cIllAhAACAAA

• ed&howard moves 8/5 6/5

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	8/5 6/5	+0.2549
			0.5612 0.1742 0.0080 - 0.4388 0.1167 0.0043
	2	2	24/23 13/10	+0.0181 ( -0.2368)
			0.5027 0.1420 0.0059 - 0.4973 0.1348 0.0046
	3	2	13/9	+0.0057 ( -0.2492)
			0.4984 0.1456 0.0057 - 0.5016 0.1370 0.0056
	4	2	24/20	+0.0004 ( -0.2545)
			0.5025 0.1271 0.0057 - 0.4975 0.1327 0.0042

Move number 2: kit&stick to play 33

Pip counts: kit&stick 167, ed&howard 163
Position ID: sGfwATDgc/ABMA Match ID: MIFtAhAACAAA

• kit&stick moves 24/21(2) 13/10(2)

Alert: lucky roll! ( +0.342)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	24/21(2) 13/10(2)	+0.1304
			0.5279 0.1309 0.0044 - 0.4721 0.0935 0.0021
	2	2	24/21(2) 6/3(2)	+0.1068 ( -0.0236)
			0.5205 0.1327 0.0047 - 0.4795 0.0968 0.0026
	3	2	24/21(2) 8/5(2)	+0.0945 ( -0.0359)
			0.5157 0.1411 0.0054 - 0.4843 0.1041 0.0030
	4	2	24/18(2)	+0.0755 ( -0.0549)
			0.5251 0.1068 0.0030 - 0.4749 0.1062 0.0022

Move number 3: ed&howard to play 42

Pip counts: kit&stick 155, ed&howard 163
Position ID: 4HPGAQawZ/ABMA Match ID: cAlqAhAACAAA

• ed&howard moves 24/20 13/11

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	24/18	-0.1146
			0.4840 0.0811 0.0016 - 0.5160 0.1319 0.0032
•	2	2	24/20 13/11	-0.1379 ( -0.0233)
			0.4736 0.0977 0.0023 - 0.5264 0.1399 0.0046
	3	2	24/22 13/9	-0.1586 ( -0.0439)
			0.4650 0.1023 0.0024 - 0.5350 0.1426 0.0049
	4	2	24/22 24/20	-0.1723 ( -0.0577)
			0.4683 0.0863 0.0020 - 0.5317 0.1434 0.0038

Annotation

This is actually a larger error on their part than noted on 2 ply. I'm not rerolling out plays I already have rolled out for my site just to screw their error rate. (but I will bring it up so I can bitch about it later)

Move number 4: kit&stick to play 43

Pip counts: kit&stick 155, ed&howard 157
Position ID: sGfkASHgc8YBBg Match ID: MAFuAhAACAAA

• kit&stick moves 21/14*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	21/14*	+0.1018
			0.5391 0.1217 0.0057 - 0.4609 0.1322 0.0033
	2	2	8/5/1	+0.0176 ( -0.0842)
			0.4929 0.1440 0.0051 - 0.5071 0.1138 0.0032
	3	2	13/6	-0.0318 ( -0.1336)
			0.4855 0.1026 0.0028 - 0.5145 0.0943 0.0021
	4	2	13/10 6/2	-0.1041 ( -0.2059)
			0.4665 0.0989 0.0028 - 0.5335 0.1033 0.0029

Move number 5: ed&howard to play 65

Pip counts: kit&stick 148, ed&howard 171
Position ID: 4HPGBQSwZ/CAUA Match ID: cAl3AhAACAAA

• ed&howard moves bar/20 13/7

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/20 13/7	-0.0310
			0.4706 0.1335 0.0029 - 0.5294 0.0886 0.0021
	2	2	bar/20 24/18	-0.1141 ( -0.0832)
			0.4496 0.0971 0.0021 - 0.5504 0.0683 0.0016
	3	2	bar/20 8/2	-0.2055 ( -0.1745)
			0.4268 0.1170 0.0021 - 0.5732 0.1073 0.0031
	4	2	bar/14	-0.3118 ( -0.2808)
			0.4181 0.1042 0.0029 - 0.5819 0.1507 0.0075

Move number 6: kit&stick to play 32

Pip counts: kit&stick 148, ed&howard 160
Position ID: sNfggCHgc8YFBA Match ID: MIFpAhAACAAA

• kit&stick moves 21/18*/16

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	21/18*/16	+0.2082
			0.5691 0.1180 0.0039 - 0.4309 0.1151 0.0024
	2	2	21/18* 8/6	+0.0345 ( -0.1737)
			0.5204 0.1229 0.0042 - 0.4796 0.1435 0.0035
	3	2	21/18* 13/11	+0.0188 ( -0.1894)
			0.5184 0.1251 0.0050 - 0.4816 0.1509 0.0047
	4	2	14/11 13/11	-0.0739 ( -0.2821)
			0.5011 0.0974 0.0029 - 0.4989 0.1577 0.0034

Move number 7: ed&howard to play 54

Pip counts: kit&stick 143, ed&howard 178
Position ID: 4HPGJQCwZ3DAUA Match ID: cIlyAhAACAAA

• ed&howard moves bar/20 13/9*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	bar/20 13/9*	+0.0840
			0.5000 0.1653 0.0045 - 0.5000 0.0985 0.0021
	2	0	bar/21 13/8	-0.3096 ( -0.3937)
			0.4009 0.0917 0.0013 - 0.5991 0.1056 0.0022
	3	0	bar/16	-0.3171 ( -0.4011)
			0.4027 0.0838 0.0010 - 0.5973 0.1075 0.0027
	4	0	bar/20 8/4	-0.3203 ( -0.4043)
			0.3937 0.0898 0.0009 - 0.6063 0.0950 0.0021

Move number 8: kit&stick to play 44

Pip counts: kit&stick 152, ed&howard 169
Position ID: sGdhwCHgc8YFQA Match ID: MAFyAhAACAAA

• kit&stick moves bar/21 14/10 6/2(2)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/21 14/10 6/2(2)	+0.1848
			0.5565 0.1376 0.0045 - 0.4435 0.1245 0.0025
	2	2	bar/21 13/9(3)	+0.1035 ( -0.0813)
			0.5339 0.1344 0.0049 - 0.4661 0.1298 0.0034
	3	2	bar/21 14/10 13/9(2)	+0.0182 ( -0.1666)
			0.5131 0.1246 0.0044 - 0.4869 0.1389 0.0036
	4	2	bar/21 8/4(3)	-0.0109 ( -0.1957)
			0.5058 0.1369 0.0052 - 0.4942 0.1541 0.0048

Move number 9: ed&howard to play 55

Pip counts: kit&stick 136, ed&howard 169
Position ID: hnOOAwSwZ2HAIQ Match ID: cIl2AhAACAAA

• ed&howard moves 13/3 9/4* 8/3

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	13/3 9/4* 8/3	-0.1334
			0.4548 0.1613 0.0033 - 0.5452 0.1471 0.0064
	2	2	9/4* 8/3(2) 6/1	-0.2650 ( -0.1316)
			0.4236 0.1348 0.0023 - 0.5764 0.1560 0.0055
	3	2	13/8 9/4* 6/1(2)	-0.2811 ( -0.1477)
			0.4157 0.1335 0.0016 - 0.5843 0.1419 0.0038
	4	2	13/3 13/8 9/4*	-0.2948 ( -0.1613)
			0.4165 0.1194 0.0026 - 0.5835 0.1499 0.0051

Move number 10: kit&stick to play 33

Pip counts: kit&stick 140, ed&howard 149
Position ID: rD1BwCGGc44DQA Match ID: MIFtAhAACAAA

• kit&stick cannot move

Alert: unlucky roll! ( -0.580)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
			Cannot move

Move number 11: ed&howard to play 42

Pip counts: kit&stick 140, ed&howard 149
Position ID: hnOOA0CsPUHAIQ Match ID: cAlqAhAACAAA

• ed&howard moves 20/16 6/4

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+0.2870	(Money: +0.2825)
	0.5643 0.2428 0.0042 - 0.4357 0.0899 0.0032
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.4089
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.5911
3.	Double, take	+0.2645	-0.1443
Proper cube action:		No double, take (19.6%)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	20/16 6/4	+0.6204
			0.6041 0.2805 0.0056 - 0.3959 0.0810 0.0031
	2	2	20/18 8/4	+0.5836 ( -0.0369)
			0.5926 0.2712 0.0059 - 0.4074 0.0717 0.0021
	3	2	13/9 6/4	+0.5655 ( -0.0549)
			0.5922 0.2634 0.0044 - 0.4078 0.0728 0.0022
	4	2	13/11 8/4	+0.5453 ( -0.0751)
			0.5856 0.2630 0.0048 - 0.4144 0.0690 0.0020

Move number 12: kit&stick to play 54

Pip counts: kit&stick 140, ed&howard 143
Position ID: bDtBhCGGc44DQA Match ID: MIFyAhAACAAA

• kit&stick cannot move

Alert: unlucky roll! ( -0.407)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
			Cannot move

Move number 13: ed&howard doubles to 2

Pip counts: kit&stick 140, ed&howard 143
Position ID: hnOOA0BsO0GEIQ Match ID: cBFgAhAACAAA

• kit&stick rejects

Alert: wrong pass ( -0.1209)! [doubtful]

Cube decision

Rollout cubeless equity

+0.5701

(Money: +0.5557)

Cubeful equities:

Double, take

+0.8791

Double, pass

+1.0000

+0.1209

No double

+0.7823

-0.0968

Proper cube action:

Double, take

Rollout details

	Win	W g	W bg		Lose	L g	L bg	Cubeless	Cubeful
Centered 1-cube	0.6557	0.3128	0.0046	-	0.3443	0.0696	0.0034	+0.5701	+0.7823
Standard error	0.0020	0.0035	0.0006	-	0.0020	0.0044	0.0015	0.0062	0.0176
Player kit&stick owns 2-cube	0.6582	0.3152	0.0045	-	0.3418	0.0580	0.0034	+1.1939	+0.8791
Standard error	0.0030	0.0050	0.0007	-	0.0030	0.0028	0.0015	0.0183	0.0256

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

388 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1056213109 and quasi-random dice

Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Annotation

We dropped rather quickly here, rather careless. The biggest drawback we have is the made two point. In spite of that all our checkers are in play and we have a good offensive position and they still have a lot of work to do to bring this position home. They're also light on wood up front to complete the closeout or prime. The race is a dead heat, clear blunder on our part.

ed&howard wins 1 point

Game statistics for game 3
Player	kit&stick	ed&howard
Checker play statistics
Total moves	6	6
Unforced moves	4	6
Unmarked moves	0	0
Moves marked good	6	6
Moves marked doubtful	0	0
Moves marked bad	0	0
Moves marked very bad	0	0
Error rate (total)	+0.000	-0.023 ( -0.081%)
Error rate (per move)	+0.00	-3.88 ( -0.014%)
Chequerplay rating	Supernatural	World class
Luck statistics
Rolls marked very lucky	0	0
Rolls marked lucky	1	0
Rolls unmarked	3	6
Rolls marked unlucky	2	0
Rolls marked very unlucky	0	0
Luck rate (total)	-0.495 ( -1.732%)	+0.514 ( +1.801%)
Luck rate (per move)	-82.47 ( -0.289%)	+85.75 ( +0.300%)
Luck rating	Go to bed	Go to Las Vegas immediately
Cube statistics
Total cube decisions	7	6
Close or actual cube decisions	1	2
Doubles	0	1
Takes	0	0
Passes	1	0
Missed doubles (below CP)	0	0
Missed doubles (above CP)	0	0
Wrong doubles (below DP)	0	0
Wrong doubles (above TG)	0	0
Wrong takes	0	0
Wrong passes	1 (-0.121 ( -0.423%))	0
Error rate (total)	-0.121 ( -0.423%)	+0.000
Error rate (per cube decision)	-120.91 ( -0.423%)	+0.00
Cube decision rating	Awful!	Supernatural
Overall statistics
Error rate (total)	-0.121 ( -0.423%)	-0.023 ( -0.081%)
Error rate (per decision)	-24.18 ( -0.085%)	-2.91 ( -0.010%)
Equiv. Snowie error rate	-10.08	-1.94
Overall rating	Casual player	World class
Actual result	-3.50%	+3.50%
Luck adjusted result	+0.03%	-0.03%

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Output generated Wed Mar 26 17:50:45 2008 by GNU Backgammon 0.16-mingw (HTML Export version 1.172)