Game number 12

The score (after 11 games) is: kit&stick 11, ed&howard 9 (match to 19 points)

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Move number 1: kit&stick to play 51

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

Pip counts: kit&stick 167, ed&howard 167
Position ID: 4HPwATDgc/ABMA Match ID: MIBmArAASAAA

• kit&stick moves 24/23 13/8

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	24/23 13/8	+0.0036
			0.5089 0.1377 0.0054 - 0.4911 0.1286 0.0036
	2	2	13/8 6/5	-0.0247 ( -0.0283)
			0.5037 0.1389 0.0054 - 0.4963 0.1359 0.0057
	3	2	24/18	-0.0444 ( -0.0479)
			0.5033 0.1205 0.0051 - 0.4967 0.1353 0.0039
	4	2	13/7	-0.0957 ( -0.0993)
			0.4849 0.1355 0.0056 - 0.5151 0.1423 0.0063

Move number 2: ed&howard to play 61

Pip counts: kit&stick 161, ed&howard 167
Position ID: 4PPgASjgc/ABMA Match ID: cAlnArAASAAA

• ed&howard moves 13/7 8/7

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	13/7 8/7	+0.0792
			0.5127 0.1379 0.0043 - 0.4873 0.1342 0.0043
	2	2	8/2/1	-0.1037 ( -0.1829)
			0.4647 0.1311 0.0041 - 0.5353 0.1577 0.0071
	3	2	13/6	-0.1264 ( -0.2056)
			0.4609 0.1191 0.0033 - 0.5391 0.1527 0.0056
	4	2	24/23 24/18	-0.1516 ( -0.2309)
			0.4643 0.0990 0.0032 - 0.5357 0.1594 0.0040

Move number 3: kit&stick to play 51

Pip counts: kit&stick 161, ed&howard 160
Position ID: 4NvgATDg8+ABKA Match ID: MIFmArAASAAA

• kit&stick moves 23/22 13/8

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	23/22 13/8	-0.1888
			0.4652 0.1215 0.0048 - 0.5348 0.1547 0.0043
	2	2	24/23 13/8	-0.2490 ( -0.0602)
			0.4418 0.1185 0.0032 - 0.5582 0.1441 0.0037
	3	2	13/8 6/5	-0.2727 ( -0.0840)
			0.4484 0.1211 0.0038 - 0.5516 0.1734 0.0065
	4	2	13/7	-0.3106 ( -0.1218)
			0.4358 0.1190 0.0041 - 0.5642 0.1730 0.0066

Move number 4: ed&howard to play 65

Pip counts: kit&stick 155, ed&howard 160
Position ID: 4PPBASTg2+ABMA Match ID: cAl3ArAASAAA

• ed&howard moves 24/13

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	13/8 13/7	+0.2172
			0.5459 0.1550 0.0040 - 0.4541 0.1190 0.0032
•	2	2	24/13	+0.2114 ( -0.0058)
			0.5557 0.1223 0.0029 - 0.4443 0.1115 0.0019
	3	2	24/18 13/8	+0.1836 ( -0.0336)
			0.5470 0.1273 0.0039 - 0.4530 0.1198 0.0023
	4	2	13/7 6/1*	+0.1009 ( -0.1163)
			0.5147 0.1476 0.0038 - 0.4853 0.1310 0.0042

Move number 5: kit&stick to play 61

Pip counts: kit&stick 155, ed&howard 149
Position ID: 4NvgAyDg88EBJA Match ID: MAFnArAASAAA

• kit&stick moves 13/7 8/7

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	13/7 8/7	-0.2009
			0.4511 0.1111 0.0018 - 0.5489 0.1238 0.0025
	2	2	22/16 6/5	-0.3377 ( -0.1368)
			0.4243 0.0933 0.0016 - 0.5757 0.1467 0.0045
	3	2	24/23 22/16	-0.3736 ( -0.1726)
			0.4149 0.0849 0.0012 - 0.5851 0.1451 0.0028
	4	2	22/15	-0.3886 ( -0.1877)
			0.4145 0.0869 0.0013 - 0.5855 0.1506 0.0032

Move number 6: ed&howard to play 43

Pip counts: kit&stick 148, ed&howard 149
Position ID: 4NuDASTg2+ADIA Match ID: cAluArAASAAA

• ed&howard moves 7/3* 6/3

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	7/3* 6/3	+0.1664
			0.5284 0.1571 0.0043 - 0.4716 0.1270 0.0041
	2	2	13/9 6/3*	+0.0624 ( -0.1039)
			0.5130 0.1351 0.0036 - 0.4870 0.1488 0.0048
	3	2	24/20 6/3*	+0.0429 ( -0.1234)
			0.5144 0.1100 0.0034 - 0.4856 0.1349 0.0030
	4	2	24/20 13/10	+0.0427 ( -0.1237)
			0.5166 0.1063 0.0031 - 0.4834 0.1358 0.0026

Move number 7: kit&stick to play 64

Pip counts: kit&stick 151, ed&howard 142
Position ID: jNfgAyDg24MBUA Match ID: MAFzArAASAAA

• kit&stick moves bar/21 24/18*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	bar/21 24/18*	+0.1526
			0.5541 0.1451 0.0057 - 0.4459 0.1265 0.0025
	2	0	bar/15	-0.2521 ( -0.4047)
			0.4531 0.1075 0.0026 - 0.5469 0.1674 0.0038
	3	0	bar/21 13/7	-0.4326 ( -0.5852)
			0.4034 0.1138 0.0038 - 0.5966 0.1926 0.0064
	4	0	bar/21 8/2	-0.4905 ( -0.6431)
			0.3942 0.1100 0.0035 - 0.6058 0.2113 0.0073

Move number 8: ed&howard to play 65

Pip counts: kit&stick 141, ed&howard 160
Position ID: 4NuDQQSMZ/ABUA Match ID: cAl3ArAASAAA

• ed&howard moves bar/20 13/7*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/20 13/7*	-0.0138
			0.4850 0.1331 0.0036 - 0.5150 0.1354 0.0049
	2	2	bar/14	-0.3245 ( -0.3107)
			0.4098 0.0961 0.0017 - 0.5902 0.1584 0.0053
	3	0	bar/20 8/2	-0.5834 ( -0.5696)
			0.3524 0.0921 0.0018 - 0.6476 0.2306 0.0130

Move number 9: kit&stick to play 41

Pip counts: kit&stick 148, ed&howard 149
Position ID: jNfgASHg24MBQg Match ID: MAFmArAASAAA

• kit&stick moves bar/21 6/5*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/21 6/5*	+0.1831
			0.5511 0.1512 0.0058 - 0.4489 0.1054 0.0025
	2	2	bar/21 8/7	+0.1734 ( -0.0097)
			0.5495 0.1236 0.0033 - 0.4505 0.0825 0.0014
	3	0	bar/20	-0.2213 ( -0.4044)
			0.4642 0.1161 0.0046 - 0.5358 0.1773 0.0040
	4	0	bar/21 7/6	-0.2707 ( -0.4537)
			0.4303 0.1013 0.0026 - 0.5697 0.1258 0.0029

Move number 10: ed&howard to play 32

Pip counts: kit&stick 143, ed&howard 154
Position ID: 0NuDAQaM1+ABUA Match ID: cIlpArAASAAA

• ed&howard moves bar/20*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	bar/20*	+0.0118
			0.4969 0.1224 0.0030 - 0.5031 0.1323 0.0041
	2	0	bar/22 24/22	-0.3808 ( -0.3926)
			0.3864 0.0771 0.0007 - 0.6136 0.1298 0.0023
	3	0	bar/23 24/21	-0.4959 ( -0.5076)
			0.3774 0.0829 0.0016 - 0.6226 0.2122 0.0075
	4	0	bar/22 13/11	-0.5102 ( -0.5219)
			0.3742 0.0869 0.0017 - 0.6258 0.2191 0.0104

Move number 11: kit&stick to play 65

Pip counts: kit&stick 163, ed&howard 149
Position ID: jNfgASHg7cEAQw Match ID: MAF3ArAASAAA

• kit&stick moves bar/14

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/14	-0.0139
			0.5029 0.1068 0.0034 - 0.4971 0.1031 0.0023
	2	2	bar/20 13/7	-0.2199 ( -0.2059)
			0.4505 0.1033 0.0034 - 0.5495 0.1266 0.0031
	3	2	bar/20 8/2	-0.2427 ( -0.2288)
			0.4504 0.1096 0.0042 - 0.5496 0.1462 0.0045
	4	0	bar/20 7/1*	-0.3819 ( -0.3680)
			0.4164 0.1064 0.0033 - 0.5836 0.1782 0.0065

Move number 12: ed&howard to play 32

Pip counts: kit&stick 152, ed&howard 149
Position ID: 4O3BAgaM1+ABIQ Match ID: cIlpArAASAAA

• ed&howard moves 24/21 13/11*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	24/21 13/11*	+0.1018
			0.5186 0.1306 0.0041 - 0.4814 0.1196 0.0041
	2	2	13/11*/8	+0.0979 ( -0.0038)
			0.5142 0.1325 0.0034 - 0.4858 0.1134 0.0032
	3	2	13/11* 6/3	+0.0005 ( -0.1012)
			0.4890 0.1355 0.0038 - 0.5110 0.1347 0.0051
	4	2	13/11* 13/10	-0.0280 ( -0.1298)
			0.4837 0.1403 0.0048 - 0.5163 0.1483 0.0078

Move number 13: kit&stick to play 62

Pip counts: kit&stick 163, ed&howard 144
Position ID: jNfIAQXg7cEAQw Match ID: MAFrArAASAAA

• kit&stick moves bar/23 8/2

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/23 8/2	-0.2917
			0.4268 0.1079 0.0032 - 0.5732 0.1340 0.0040
	2	2	bar/23 13/7	-0.3135 ( -0.0217)
			0.4288 0.1077 0.0036 - 0.5712 0.1490 0.0047
	3	0	bar/23 7/1	-0.6322 ( -0.3404)
			0.3631 0.0875 0.0021 - 0.6369 0.1989 0.0079
	4	0	bar/23 21/15	-0.6589 ( -0.3672)
			0.3828 0.0922 0.0037 - 0.6172 0.2572 0.0117

Move number 14: ed&howard to play 63

Pip counts: kit&stick 155, ed&howard 144
Position ID: wtvBABOM18gBBQ Match ID: cAlvArAASAAA

• ed&howard moves 13/7 11/8

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+0.1706	(Money: +0.1734)
	0.5732 0.1340 0.0040 - 0.4268 0.1079 0.0032
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.2917
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.7083
3.	Double, take	+0.1426	-0.1491
Proper cube action:		No double, take (17.4%)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	13/7 11/8	+0.3090
			0.5746 0.1560 0.0050 - 0.4254 0.1167 0.0027
	2	2	20/11	+0.2024 ( -0.1066)
			0.5495 0.1444 0.0051 - 0.4505 0.1319 0.0033
	3	2	13/7 6/3	+0.2017 ( -0.1073)
			0.5453 0.1593 0.0059 - 0.4547 0.1383 0.0044
	4	2	21/15 11/8	+0.0556 ( -0.2534)
			0.5157 0.1389 0.0051 - 0.4843 0.1607 0.0060

Move number 15: kit&stick to play 64

Pip counts: kit&stick 155, ed&howard 135
Position ID: jLeDAQXC28EAEw Match ID: MAFzArAASAAA

• kit&stick moves 8/2 6/2

Annotation

It looked ugly at the time but we still thought it correct. It's too early to be doing that kind of stuff

Move number 16: ed&howard to play 33

Pip counts: kit&stick 145, ed&howard 135
Position ID: DrfBABOMt4MBBQ Match ID: cIltArAASAAA

• ed&howard moves 8/2* 8/5(2)

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+0.3318	(Money: +0.3316)
	0.6362 0.1391 0.0034 - 0.3638 0.0819 0.0014
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.5449
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.4551
3.	Double, take	+0.5004	-0.0445
Proper cube action:		No double, take (8.9%)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	8/2* 8/5(2)	+0.6626
			0.6520 0.2040 0.0066 - 0.3480 0.0954 0.0027
	2	2	8/5(3) 6/3	+0.6408 ( -0.0217)
			0.6350 0.2122 0.0084 - 0.3650 0.1042 0.0024
	3	2	8/2*(2)	+0.5423 ( -0.1202)
			0.6167 0.1849 0.0046 - 0.3833 0.1019 0.0025
	4	2	13/10(2) 8/2*	+0.5044 ( -0.1582)
			0.6191 0.1652 0.0051 - 0.3809 0.1029 0.0027

Move number 17: kit&stick to play 21

Pip counts: kit&stick 147, ed&howard 123
Position ID: mr2BAQUOt8EAQw Match ID: MAFlArAASAAA

• kit&stick moves bar/23* 6/5*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/23* 6/5*	-0.3921
			0.4236 0.1325 0.0055 - 0.5764 0.2022 0.0093
	2	2	bar/23* 2/1	-0.4879 ( -0.0959)
			0.3982 0.1075 0.0034 - 0.6018 0.1880 0.0070
	3	2	bar/23* 8/7	-0.5867 ( -0.1946)
			0.3692 0.0940 0.0029 - 0.6308 0.1968 0.0073
	4	0	bar/23* 7/6	-0.8097 ( -0.4176)
			0.3408 0.0845 0.0025 - 0.6592 0.2258 0.0108

Move number 18: ed&howard to play 32

Pip counts: kit&stick 144, ed&howard 151
Position ID: jrbBABPM3sAAYQ Match ID: cIlpArAASAAA

• ed&howard moves bar/22

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+0.2253	(Money: +0.2261)
	0.5764 0.2022 0.0093 - 0.4236 0.1325 0.0055
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.3921
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.6079
3.	Double, take	+0.2742	-0.1178
Proper cube action:		No double, take (16.2%)

Alert: unlucky roll! ( -0.305)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	bar/22	+0.1383
			0.5280 0.1862 0.0091 - 0.4720 0.1889 0.0070

Move number 19: kit&stick to play 43

Pip counts: kit&stick 144, ed&howard 148
Position ID: zN7AAEWOtsEAEw Match ID: MAFuArAASAAA

• kit&stick moves 8/5 8/4*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	8/5 8/4*	+0.0374
			0.5131 0.2083 0.0106 - 0.4869 0.1704 0.0082
	2	2	8/4* 7/4	-0.0081 ( -0.0456)
			0.4972 0.2195 0.0114 - 0.5028 0.2038 0.0166
	3	2	8/5 7/3*	-0.0390 ( -0.0764)
			0.4919 0.2096 0.0105 - 0.5081 0.1969 0.0140
	4	0	21/17 8/5	-0.3662 ( -0.4036)
			0.4396 0.1609 0.0084 - 0.5604 0.2520 0.0195

Move number 20: ed&howard to play 11

Pip counts: kit&stick 137, ed&howard 152
Position ID: TtvAABPM3sAAYg Match ID: cIlkArAASAAA

• ed&howard moves bar/24(2) 22/21* 6/5

Alert: lucky roll! ( +0.489)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	bar/24(2) 22/21* 6/5	+0.5286
			0.6060 0.2463 0.0137 - 0.3940 0.1250 0.0070
	2	0	bar/24(2) 3/2*(2)	+0.2048 ( -0.3238)
			0.5290 0.2140 0.0110 - 0.4710 0.1630 0.0112
	3	0	bar/24(2) 22/21* 7/6	+0.1245 ( -0.4041)
			0.5162 0.2005 0.0106 - 0.4838 0.1815 0.0158
	4	0	bar/24(2) 22/21* 3/2*	+0.1165 ( -0.4121)
			0.5214 0.1961 0.0125 - 0.4786 0.1973 0.0211

Move number 21: kit&stick to play 53

Pip counts: kit&stick 158, ed&howard 148
Position ID: zN3AADGObWCASQ Match ID: MIFuArAASAAA

• kit&stick cannot move

#		Ply	Move	Equity
			Cannot move

Annotation

I thought this was clearly too early. Even with our Mundungus play killing the builder on the two point earlier our position is solid.

Move number 22: ed&howard doubles to 2

Pip counts: kit&stick 158, ed&howard 148
Position ID: jm1ggEnM3cAAMQ Match ID: cBFgArAASAAA

• kit&stick accepts

Alert: wrong double ( -0.0371)!

Cube decision

Rollout cubeless equity

+0.4237

(Money: +0.4042)

Cubeful equities:

No double

+0.6614

Double, pass

+1.0000

+0.3386

Double, take

+0.6244

-0.0371

Proper cube action:

No double, take (9.9%)

Rollout details

	Win	W g	W bg		Lose	L g	L bg	Cubeless	Cubeful
Centered 1-cube	0.6276	0.2538	0.0111	-	0.3724	0.1092	0.0066	+0.4237	+0.6614
Standard error	0.0030	0.0034	0.0008	-	0.0030	0.0027	0.0021	0.0089	0.0242
Player kit&stick owns 2-cube	0.6280	0.2470	0.0083	-	0.3720	0.1046	0.0100	+0.8778	+0.6244
Standard error	0.0038	0.0049	0.0012	-	0.0038	0.0031	0.0025	0.0235	0.0304

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

325 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1053754233 and quasi-random dice

Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Move number 23: ed&howard to play 32

Pip counts: kit&stick 158, ed&howard 148
Position ID: jm1ggEnM3cAAMQ Match ID: QYlpArAASAAA

• ed&howard moves 24/22 5/2*

Annotation

Blitzing? Really? Equal boards, we have an anchor and you don't if you make this play ... you haven't a prayer of closing us out.

Move number 24: kit&stick to play 42

Pip counts: kit&stick 160, ed&howard 143
Position ID: mt3AACWObWCAYQ Match ID: AQFqArAASAAA

• kit&stick moves bar/23* bar/21

Alert: lucky roll! ( +0.363)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	bar/23* bar/21	+0.0608
			0.4782 0.1678 0.0110 - 0.5218 0.1610 0.0060

Move number 25: ed&howard to play 11

Pip counts: kit&stick 154, ed&howard 166
Position ID: jm1ggBPMbmCAUg Match ID: QYlkArAASAAA

• ed&howard moves bar/24 22/21 3/2*(2)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/24 22/21 3/2*(2)	-0.0038
			0.5341 0.1839 0.0069 - 0.4659 0.1630 0.0089
	2	2	bar/24 6/5 3/2*(2)	-0.0191 ( -0.0154)
			0.5296 0.1856 0.0071 - 0.4704 0.1710 0.0108
	3	2	bar/24 22/21 7/6(2)	-0.1897 ( -0.1860)
			0.4749 0.1572 0.0056 - 0.5251 0.1861 0.0110
	4	2	bar/24 7/5 7/6	-0.1899 ( -0.1861)
			0.4770 0.1620 0.0064 - 0.5230 0.1992 0.0146

Move number 26: kit&stick to play 43

Pip counts: kit&stick 156, ed&howard 162
Position ID: xm5ggDGObWCAQw Match ID: AQFuArAASAAA

• kit&stick moves bar/22 21/17

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	bar/22 21/17	+0.1219
			0.5078 0.1714 0.0103 - 0.4922 0.1725 0.0067
	2	0	bar/21 13/10	-0.2217 ( -0.3436)
			0.4067 0.1280 0.0075 - 0.5933 0.2376 0.0118
	3	0	bar/22 13/9	-0.2674 ( -0.3893)
			0.3993 0.1360 0.0082 - 0.6007 0.2665 0.0168
	4	0	bar/22 7/3	-0.4409 ( -0.5628)
			0.3564 0.1079 0.0048 - 0.6436 0.3075 0.0232

Move number 27: ed&howard to play 63

Pip counts: kit&stick 149, ed&howard 162
Position ID: jm1gCAvGbmCAMQ Match ID: QQlvArAASAAA

• ed&howard moves 24/15

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	24/15	-0.1104
			0.5018 0.1659 0.0068 - 0.4982 0.1811 0.0076
	2	2	21/15 6/3*	-0.1336 ( -0.0232)
			0.4963 0.1812 0.0088 - 0.5037 0.2127 0.0217
	3	2	13/7 6/3*	-0.3168 ( -0.2063)
			0.4397 0.1439 0.0057 - 0.5603 0.2281 0.0161
	4	2	24/21 13/7	-0.3639 ( -0.2535)
			0.4241 0.1307 0.0048 - 0.5759 0.2234 0.0094

Move number 28: kit&stick to play 22

Pip counts: kit&stick 149, ed&howard 153
Position ID: xm5gAiOObWAICw Match ID: AQFpArAASAAA

• kit&stick moves 7/3(2)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	7/3(2)	+0.0013
			0.4678 0.1575 0.0059 - 0.5322 0.1849 0.0073
	2	2	13/9(2)	-0.0120 ( -0.0134)
			0.4618 0.1481 0.0065 - 0.5382 0.1779 0.0063
	3	2	17/13 7/5(2)	-0.0228 ( -0.0241)
			0.4535 0.1309 0.0036 - 0.5465 0.1576 0.0047
	4	2	17/13 5/3(2)	-0.0563 ( -0.0577)
			0.4409 0.1215 0.0029 - 0.5591 0.1547 0.0040

Move number 29: ed&howard to play 65

Pip counts: kit&stick 141, ed&howard 153
Position ID: bjZgCAvGbmACIw Match ID: QQl3ArAASAAA

• ed&howard moves 24/13

Move number 30: kit&stick to play 43

Pip counts: kit&stick 141, ed&howard 142
Position ID: xm7gBAZuNmAICw Match ID: AQFuArAASAAA

• kit&stick moves 17/10*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	17/10*	+0.1833
			0.5200 0.1670 0.0046 - 0.4800 0.1350 0.0044
	2	2	13/10*/6	+0.1385 ( -0.0448)
			0.5073 0.1698 0.0044 - 0.4927 0.1504 0.0056
	3	2	21/17 13/10*	+0.1292 ( -0.0541)
			0.5139 0.1719 0.0048 - 0.4861 0.1726 0.0095
	4	2	13/10* 13/9	+0.0272 ( -0.1561)
			0.4765 0.1604 0.0047 - 0.5235 0.1765 0.0101

Move number 31: ed&howard to play 33

Pip counts: kit&stick 134, ed&howard 152
Position ID: bjbEAAvGbuAAQw Match ID: QYltArAASAAA

• ed&howard cannot move

#		Ply	Move	Equity
			Cannot move

Move number 32: kit&stick to play 64

Pip counts: kit&stick 134, ed&howard 152
Position ID: xm7gAENuNsQACw Match ID: AQFzArAASAAA

• kit&stick moves 22/16 10/6

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	22/16 10/6	+0.3971
			0.5913 0.1845 0.0042 - 0.4087 0.1034 0.0022
	2	2	21/15 10/6	+0.2930 ( -0.1041)
			0.5608 0.1912 0.0054 - 0.4392 0.1387 0.0052
	3	2	21/11	+0.2475 ( -0.1496)
			0.5481 0.1875 0.0058 - 0.4519 0.1487 0.0077
	4	2	21/17 21/15	+0.1974 ( -0.1998)
			0.5409 0.1824 0.0057 - 0.4591 0.1727 0.0122

Move number 33: ed&howard to play 33

Pip counts: kit&stick 124, ed&howard 152
Position ID: bnbACAbGbuAAQw Match ID: QYltArAASAAA

• ed&howard cannot move

#		Ply	Move	Equity
			Cannot move

Move number 34: kit&stick to play 61

Pip counts: kit&stick 124, ed&howard 152
Position ID: xm7gAENudsAIBg Match ID: AQFnArAASAAA

• kit&stick moves 21/15 16/15

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	21/15 16/15	+0.5260
			0.6381 0.1932 0.0045 - 0.3619 0.0896 0.0021
	2	2	21/14	+0.4189 ( -0.1071)
			0.6036 0.2008 0.0054 - 0.3964 0.1198 0.0044
	3	2	21/15 6/5	+0.4012 ( -0.1248)
			0.5982 0.2048 0.0058 - 0.4018 0.1276 0.0051
	4	2	16/10 6/5	+0.3945 ( -0.1315)
			0.5871 0.1999 0.0053 - 0.4129 0.1074 0.0029

Move number 35: ed&howard to play 33

Pip counts: kit&stick 117, ed&howard 152
Position ID: bnbADATGbuAAQw Match ID: QYltArAASAAA

• ed&howard cannot move

#		Ply	Move	Equity
			Cannot move

Move number 36: kit&stick to play 53

Pip counts: kit&stick 117, ed&howard 152
Position ID: xm7gAENudsAMBA Match ID: AYFuArAASAAA

• kit&stick moves 21/13

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	21/13	+0.6725
			0.6847 0.1961 0.0036 - 0.3153 0.0625 0.0010
	2	2	21/16 6/3	+0.5488 ( -0.1236)
			0.6437 0.2031 0.0037 - 0.3563 0.0866 0.0019
	3	2	21/16 13/10	+0.5259 ( -0.1466)
			0.6396 0.2012 0.0047 - 0.3604 0.0992 0.0046
	4	2	13/5	+0.5145 ( -0.1579)
			0.6259 0.2300 0.0054 - 0.3741 0.0980 0.0030

Move number 37: ed&howard to play 33

Pip counts: kit&stick 109, ed&howard 152
Position ID: bnbAGQDGbuAAQw Match ID: QYltArAASAAA

• ed&howard cannot move

#		Ply	Move	Equity
			Cannot move

Annotation

I would double this again from the very same position. Even if you figure it's a small ND our opponents have just fanned 4x on a 4 point board (after making a blunder)! Their spirits have to be down and they might have easily passed this. Even if they take, oh no, we're over 70% with almost 1/4th of those being gammon wins, woe is us.

Move number 38: kit&stick doubles to 4

Pip counts: kit&stick 109, ed&howard 152
Position ID: xm7gAENudsAZAA Match ID: ARlgArAASAAA

• ed&howard accepts

Alert: wrong double ( -0.0590)!

Cube decision

Rollout cubeless equity

+0.5550

(Money: +0.5891)

Cubeful equities:

No double

+0.7957

Double, pass

+1.0000

+0.2043

Double, take

+0.7367

-0.0590

Proper cube action:

No redouble, take (22.4%)

Rollout details

	Win	W g	W bg		Lose	L g	L bg	Cubeless	Cubeful
Player kit&stick owns 2-cube	0.7067	0.2169	0.0086	-	0.2933	0.0487	0.0011	+0.5550	+0.7957
Standard error	0.0026	0.0038	0.0028	-	0.0026	0.0021	0.0002	0.0062	0.0139
Player ed&howard owns 4-cube	0.7143	0.2450	0.0089	-	0.2857	0.0484	0.0022	+1.1013	+0.7367
Standard error	0.0028	0.0070	0.0023	-	0.0028	0.0025	0.0004	0.0142	0.0199

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1053754233 and quasi-random dice

Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Move number 39: kit&stick to play 54

Pip counts: kit&stick 109, ed&howard 152
Position ID: xm7gAENudsAZAA Match ID: EoFyArAASAAA

• kit&stick moves 15/11 15/10

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	15/11 15/10	+0.4320
			0.7290 0.2304 0.0046 - 0.2710 0.0433 0.0008
	2	2	15/6	+0.3828 ( -0.0492)
			0.7103 0.2341 0.0044 - 0.2897 0.0484 0.0008
	3	2	15/11 13/8	+0.3177 ( -0.1143)
			0.6917 0.2395 0.0054 - 0.3083 0.0707 0.0025
	4	2	13/9 13/8	+0.2243 ( -0.2077)
			0.6629 0.2298 0.0049 - 0.3371 0.0809 0.0033

Move number 40: ed&howard to play 53

Pip counts: kit&stick 100, ed&howard 152
Position ID: bnYoBwDGbuAAQw Match ID: UoluArAASAAA

• ed&howard cannot move

#		Ply	Move	Equity
			Cannot move

Move number 41: kit&stick to play 65

Pip counts: kit&stick 100, ed&howard 152
Position ID: xm7gAENudigHAA Match ID: EgF3ArAASAAA

• kit&stick moves 13/7 10/5

Ply

Move

Equity

•

13/7 10/5

+0.5489

0.7582	0.3343	0.0164	-	0.2418	0.0392	0.0034	+0.7109	+0.5489
0.0022	0.0053	0.0030	-	0.0022	0.0017	0.0016	0.0051	0.0076

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

634 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1053754233 and quasi-random dice

Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

11/5 10/5

+0.5401 ( -0.0088)

0.7528	0.3279	0.0210	-	0.2472	0.0313	0.0019	+0.6974	+0.5401
0.0022	0.0056	0.0038	-	0.0022	0.0014	0.0007	0.0056	0.0075

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

635 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1053754233 and quasi-random dice

Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

13/8 11/5

+0.4913 ( -0.0576)

0.7306 0.3176 0.0068 - 0.2694 0.0502 0.0013

13/7 11/6

+0.4773 ( -0.0716)

0.7269 0.3099 0.0055 - 0.2731 0.0464 0.0011

Move number 42: ed&howard to play 53

Pip counts: kit&stick 89, ed&howard 152
Position ID: bu5CBgDGbuAAQw Match ID: UoluArAASAAA

• ed&howard cannot move

#		Ply	Move	Equity
			Cannot move

Move number 43: kit&stick to play 53

Pip counts: kit&stick 89, ed&howard 152
Position ID: xm7gAENu7kIGAA Match ID: EoFuArAASAAA

• kit&stick moves 11/3

Ply

Move

Equity

13/8 11/8

+0.6103

0.7685	0.3991	0.0180	-	0.2315	0.0392	0.0038	+0.7781	+0.6103
0.0028	0.0094	0.0052	-	0.0028	0.0028	0.0021	0.0072	0.0106

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

246 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1053754233 and quasi-random dice

Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

•

11/3

+0.6094 ( -0.0009)

0.7615	0.4022	0.0188	-	0.2385	0.0338	0.0032	+0.7756	+0.6094
0.0030	0.0088	0.0052	-	0.0030	0.0023	0.0021	0.0077	0.0110

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

246 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1053754233 and quasi-random dice

Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

13/5

+0.6278 ( +0.0175)

0.7621 0.3870 0.0058 - 0.2379 0.0440 0.0018

11/8 7/2

+0.5695 ( -0.0408)

0.7430 0.3691 0.0057 - 0.2570 0.0405 0.0008

Move number 44: ed&howard to play 11

Pip counts: kit&stick 81, ed&howard 152
Position ID: 7twFBgDGbuAAQw Match ID: UolkArAASAAA

• ed&howard moves bar/24 7/4

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/24 7/4	-0.6920
			0.2351 0.0454 0.0019 - 0.7649 0.4587 0.0069
	2	2	bar/24 6/4 5/4	-0.6920 ( -0.0000)
			0.2356 0.0400 0.0014 - 0.7644 0.4563 0.0060
	3	2	bar/24 7/5 7/6	-0.7130 ( -0.0210)
			0.2183 0.0310 0.0005 - 0.7817 0.4108 0.0037
	4	2	bar/24 6/3	-0.7250 ( -0.0329)
			0.2243 0.0365 0.0008 - 0.7757 0.4574 0.0055

Move number 45: kit&stick to play 32

Pip counts: kit&stick 81, ed&howard 148
Position ID: pl3gACPu3AUGAA Match ID: EoFpArAASAAA

• kit&stick moves 7/2

Alert: unlucky roll! ( -0.326)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	7/2	+0.5140
			0.7246 0.3640 0.0052 - 0.2754 0.0437 0.0014
	2	2	7/5 6/3	+0.4745 ( -0.0395)
			0.7136 0.3537 0.0055 - 0.2864 0.0474 0.0017
	3	2	6/1*	+0.4116 ( -0.1024)
			0.6931 0.3865 0.0102 - 0.3069 0.0804 0.0027
	4	2	13/10 3/1*	+0.3810 ( -0.1330)
			0.6815 0.4024 0.0105 - 0.3185 0.1233 0.0141

Move number 46: ed&howard to play 41

Pip counts: kit&stick 76, ed&howard 148
Position ID: 3rkDBgCmXeAAIw Match ID: UglmArAASAAA

• ed&howard moves 7/3 4/3

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		-0.6793	(Money: -0.7732)
	0.2754 0.0437 0.0014 - 0.7246 0.3640 0.0052
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	-0.5140
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+1.5140
3.	Double, take	-0.6650	-0.1510
Proper cube action:		No redouble, take (9.1%)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	7/3 4/3	-0.4594
			0.2948 0.0552 0.0016 - 0.7052 0.3659 0.0047
	2	2	13/8	-0.5510 ( -0.0916)
			0.2761 0.0590 0.0020 - 0.7239 0.4301 0.0084
	3	2	13/9 6/5	-0.5782 ( -0.1187)
			0.2692 0.0557 0.0017 - 0.7308 0.4394 0.0091
	4	2	13/9 7/6	-0.5876 ( -0.1281)
			0.2618 0.0480 0.0014 - 0.7382 0.4172 0.0079

Move number 47: kit&stick to play 43

Pip counts: kit&stick 76, ed&howard 143
Position ID: NjvgACPeuQMGAA Match ID: EgFuArAASAAA

• kit&stick moves 6/3 5/1*

Annotation

Puke. There's no need to roll this out. This is another wtf were you thinking OtB problem. 13/6, NEXT!

Move number 48: ed&howard to play 31

Pip counts: kit&stick 69, ed&howard 144
Position ID: vWcDBgA2O+AAQw Match ID: UollArAASAAA

• ed&howard moves bar/24*/21

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		-0.4297	(Money: -0.5192)
	0.3610 0.0837 0.0021 - 0.6390 0.3234 0.0036
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	-0.2166
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+1.2166
3.	Double, take	-0.3058	-0.0893
Proper cube action:		No redouble, take (6.8%)

Alert: lucky roll! ( +0.592)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/24*/21	+0.5499
			0.5665 0.1686 0.0026 - 0.4335 0.1373 0.0035
	2	2	bar/24* 13/10	+0.5181 ( -0.0318)
			0.5580 0.1836 0.0039 - 0.4420 0.1850 0.0071
	3	2	bar/24* 21/18	+0.4548 ( -0.0952)
			0.5439 0.1765 0.0043 - 0.4561 0.2026 0.0082
	4	2	bar/24* 6/3	+0.3608 ( -0.1891)
			0.5143 0.1559 0.0030 - 0.4857 0.1772 0.0049

Move number 49: kit&stick to play 61

Pip counts: kit&stick 93, ed&howard 140
Position ID: NjvgAAfeswEDQA Match ID: EgFnArAASAAA

• kit&stick moves bar/18

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	bar/18	-0.3168
			0.4914 0.1382 0.0017 - 0.5086 0.1246 0.0018
	2	0	bar/24 13/7	-1.0000 ( -0.6832)
			0.2949 0.0926 0.0009 - 0.7051 0.2718 0.0116

Move number 50: ed&howard to play 65

Pip counts: kit&stick 86, ed&howard 140
Position ID: 3rMBgwA2O+AABw Match ID: Ugl3ArAASAAA

• ed&howard moves 21/16 13/7*

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+0.0124	(Money: -0.0404)
	0.4901 0.1203 0.0026 - 0.5099 0.1415 0.0021
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.2889
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.7111
3.	Double, take	+0.2232	-0.0657
Proper cube action:		No redouble, take (8.5%)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	21/16 13/7*	+0.6977
			0.6025 0.1879 0.0031 - 0.3975 0.1397 0.0039
	2	2	13/8 13/7*	+0.5740 ( -0.1236)
			0.5752 0.1837 0.0029 - 0.4248 0.1731 0.0061
	3	2	13/7*/2	+0.4722 ( -0.2254)
			0.5456 0.1520 0.0020 - 0.4544 0.1270 0.0026
	4	0	13/7* 6/1	+0.2812 ( -0.4165)
			0.5028 0.1515 0.0016 - 0.4972 0.2111 0.0058

Move number 51: kit&stick to play 61

Pip counts: kit&stick 93, ed&howard 129
Position ID: NrvACAbeswEDQA Match ID: EgFnArAASAAA

• kit&stick moves bar/18*

Alert: very lucky roll! ( +0.801)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	bar/18*	+0.1648
			0.6227 0.3074 0.0066 - 0.3773 0.0881 0.0022
	2	0	bar/24 13/7	-1.0981 ( -1.2630)
			0.2200 0.0659 0.0006 - 0.7800 0.3427 0.0193

Move number 52: ed&howard to play 31

Pip counts: kit&stick 86, ed&howard 147
Position ID: 3rMBgwA2O2AEQw Match ID: UollArAASAAA

• ed&howard moves bar/24 16/13

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		-0.4505	(Money: -0.5460)
	0.3561 0.0800 0.0023 - 0.6439 0.3322 0.0083
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	-0.2440
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+1.2440
3.	Double, take	-0.3272	-0.0831
Proper cube action:		No redouble, take (6.3%)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/24 16/13	-0.0279
			0.4064 0.0982 0.0015 - 0.5936 0.2235 0.0051
	2	2	bar/21	-0.0343 ( -0.0064)
			0.4084 0.0937 0.0018 - 0.5916 0.2369 0.0042
	3	2	bar/24 6/3	-0.2358 ( -0.2079)
			0.3603 0.0887 0.0023 - 0.6397 0.3386 0.0101
	4	2	bar/24 21/18	-0.3807 ( -0.3528)
			0.3287 0.0941 0.0039 - 0.6713 0.4306 0.0256

Move number 53: kit&stick to play 64

Pip counts: kit&stick 86, ed&howard 143
Position ID: NjvgACPeswGDAA Match ID: EgFzArAASAAA

• kit&stick moves 18/8

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	18/8	-0.0610
			0.5649 0.2121 0.0053 - 0.4351 0.1023 0.0021
	2	0	13/3	-0.6362 ( -0.5752)
			0.4146 0.1657 0.0032 - 0.5854 0.1882 0.0056
	3	0	13/9 13/7	-1.0000 ( -0.9390)
			0.3014 0.1224 0.0023 - 0.6986 0.3682 0.0310
	4	0	18/14 13/7	-1.0344 ( -0.9734)
			0.2833 0.1111 0.0021 - 0.7167 0.3986 0.0506

Move number 54: ed&howard to play 63

Pip counts: kit&stick 76, ed&howard 143
Position ID: 3rMJBgA2O+AAIw Match ID: UglvArAASAAA

• ed&howard moves 24/18 21/18

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		-0.1654	(Money: -0.2326)
	0.4351 0.1056 0.0032 - 0.5649 0.2073 0.0043
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.0874
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.9126
3.	Double, take	-0.0017	-0.0892
Proper cube action:		No redouble, take (8.9%)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	24/18 21/18	+0.0884
			0.4468 0.0973 0.0013 - 0.5532 0.2233 0.0039
	2	2	24/21 13/7	-0.0946 ( -0.1829)
			0.3729 0.0702 0.0006 - 0.6271 0.1596 0.0019
	3	2	13/4	-0.1074 ( -0.1958)
			0.3858 0.0941 0.0030 - 0.6142 0.2628 0.0062
	4	2	24/15	-0.2152 ( -0.3036)
			0.3439 0.0590 0.0009 - 0.6561 0.2108 0.0026

Move number 55: kit&stick to play 64

Pip counts: kit&stick 76, ed&howard 134
Position ID: NjvgYATeswkGAA Match ID: EgFzArAASAAA

• kit&stick moves 8/2 6/2

Alert: unlucky roll! ( -0.501)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	8/2 6/2	-0.5867
			0.4209 0.1229 0.0008 - 0.5791 0.1433 0.0028
	2	2	8/2 5/1	-0.6070 ( -0.0203)
			0.4174 0.1368 0.0011 - 0.5826 0.1554 0.0072
	3	2	13/3	-0.8484 ( -0.2617)
			0.3583 0.1180 0.0016 - 0.6417 0.1709 0.0050
	4	0	13/9 8/2	-1.0000 ( -0.4133)
			0.3021 0.0940 0.0010 - 0.6979 0.2194 0.0084

Annotation

This was my fault. Even after the match I admitted it was probably a huge take before seeing any bot results. Granted, it came down significantly from 2 ply's quadruple whopper, but it's still a double, and still a monster take. The key being their open four point of course along with our monster racing lead.

Move number 56: ed&howard doubles to 8

Pip counts: kit&stick 66, ed&howard 134
Position ID: fs8CBgA2O+BgBA Match ID: UhFgArAASAAA

• kit&stick rejects

Alert: wrong pass ( -0.1886)! [very bad]

Cube decision

Rollout cubeless equity

+0.3045

(Money: +0.2513)

Cubeful equities:

Double, take

+0.8114

Double, pass

+1.0000

+0.1886

No double

+0.7433

-0.0681

Proper cube action:

Redouble, take

Rollout details

	Win	W g	W bg		Lose	L g	L bg	Cubeless	Cubeful
Player ed&howard owns 4-cube	0.6185	0.1645	0.0127	-	0.3815	0.1587	0.0042	+0.3045	+0.7433
Standard error	0.0014	0.0022	0.0015	-	0.0014	0.0053	0.0012	0.0033	0.0055
Player kit&stick owns 8-cube	0.6326	0.1687	0.0158	-	0.3674	0.1924	0.0073	+0.8114	+0.8114
Standard error	0.0015	0.0027	0.0020	-	0.0015	0.0068	0.0016	0.0064	0.0064

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1298 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1053754233 and quasi-random dice

Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

ed&howard wins 4 points

Game statistics for game 12
Player	kit&stick	ed&howard
Checker play statistics
Total moves	27	26
Unforced moves	25	19
Unmarked moves	0	0
Moves marked good	25	24
Moves marked doubtful	0	0
Moves marked bad	1	1
Moves marked very bad	1	1
Error rate (total)	-0.247 ( -4.119%)	-0.277 ( -2.952%)
Error rate (per move)	-9.87 ( -0.165%)	-14.57 ( -0.155%)
Chequerplay rating	Advanced	Intermediate
Luck statistics
Rolls marked very lucky	1	0
Rolls marked lucky	1	2
Rolls unmarked	23	23
Rolls marked unlucky	2	1
Rolls marked very unlucky	0	0
Luck rate (total)	-0.030 ( -3.417%)	-0.020 ( +0.207%)
Luck rate (per move)	-1.11 ( -0.127%)	-0.78 ( +0.008%)
Luck rating	None	None
Cube statistics
Total cube decisions	20	21
Close or actual cube decisions	3	11
Doubles	1	2
Takes	1	1
Passes	1	0
Missed doubles (below CP)	0	0
Missed doubles (above CP)	0	0
Wrong doubles (below DP)	1 (-0.059 ( -0.636%))	1 (-0.037 ( -0.192%))
Wrong doubles (above TG)	0	0
Wrong takes	0	0
Wrong passes	1 (-0.189 ( -4.199%))	0
Error rate (total)	-0.248 ( -4.836%)	-0.037 ( -0.192%)
Error rate (per cube decision)	-82.54 ( -1.612%)	-3.37 ( -0.017%)
Cube decision rating	Awful!	World class
Overall statistics
Error rate (total)	-0.494 ( -8.955%)	-0.314 ( -3.144%)
Error rate (per decision)	-17.65 ( -0.320%)	-10.46 ( -0.105%)
Equiv. Snowie error rate	-9.33	-5.92
Overall rating	Intermediate	Advanced
Actual result	-22.30%	+22.30%
Luck adjusted result	-18.68%	+18.68%

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Output generated Wed Mar 26 17:50:46 2008 by GNU Backgammon 0.16-mingw (HTML Export version 1.172)