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Contrasting Variants

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Thursday, 11 December 2014, at 10:11 p.m.

In Response To: Contrasting Variants (Timothy Chow)

Sorry to say, I do not have a subscription to Gammon Village. (I keep saying I need to take advantage of the “lifetime” offer, and then I end up deferring the $100+ expense.)

In the contrasting positions I presented, the big swing may be related to how 4s play after a hit. Even though the only difference between the two positions is the one pip that results when the opponent’s spare slides forward from his 5pt to his 4pt, that is enough to turn 4s into cracking numbers after a hit.

Although this is an explanation that sounds plausible, I have not taken the time to devise any positions that test the theory.

Mike

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 71 Unlimited Game pip: 71 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBaBCBBB----------bbccbb-:2:-1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 53

1.	Rollout1	8/5 8/3*	eq: +0.2879
	Player: Opponent: 67.96% (G:1.54% B:0.03%) 32.04% (G:1.40% B:0.01%) Conf.: ±0.0015 (+0.2865...+0.2894) - [100.0%] Duration: 41.2 seconds
2.	Rollout1	7/4 7/2	eq: +0.2490 (-0.0389)
	Player: Opponent: 67.47% (G:0.47% B:0.01%) 32.53% (G:0.37% B:0.01%) Conf.: ±0.0021 (+0.2469...+0.2511) - [0.0%] Duration: 27.0 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 84274889 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Taper_Mike 2014-Dec-09 eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658 Flashcard PositionID 000932a.xgp n[J j39] "<=5

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 72 Unlimited Game pip: 71 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBaBCBBB----------bcbcbb-:2:-1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 53

1.	Rollout1	7/4 7/2	eq: +0.2846
	Player: Opponent: 68.87% (G:0.46% B:0.01%) 31.13% (G:0.34% B:0.01%) Conf.: ±0.0021 (+0.2825...+0.2866) - [100.0%] Duration: 29.3 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/3* 6/3	eq: +0.2490 (-0.0356)
	Player: Opponent: 66.48% (G:1.00% B:0.02%) 33.52% (G:7.00% B:0.14%) Conf.: ±0.0012 (+0.2478...+0.2502) - [0.0%] Duration: 54.4 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 84274889 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Taper_Mike 2014-Dec-09 eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658 Flashcard PositionID 000932b.xgp n[j J36] "<=5

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

 

Messages In This Thread

• Who Woulda And Coulda Known This?
  Paul Weaver -- Monday, 8 December 2014, at 5:26 p.m.
  • Who Woulda And Coulda Known This?
    Keene -- Monday, 8 December 2014, at 6:15 p.m.
    • Contrasting Variants
      Taper_Mike -- Wednesday, 10 December 2014, at 12:00 a.m.
      • Contrasting Variants
        Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 11 December 2014, at 2:36 a.m.
        • Contrasting Variants
          Taper_Mike -- Thursday, 11 December 2014, at 10:11 p.m.
  • Who Woulda And Coulda Known This?
    Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 20 December 2014, at 5:10 p.m.