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Contrasting Variants
Posted By: Taper_Mike In Response To: Who Woulda And Coulda Known This? (Keene)
Date: Wednesday, 10 December 2014, at 12:00 a.m.
Thanks, Paul, for posting these very difficult positions. Thanks also to Keene for mentioning Lamford's Law. I had forgotten it, although in practice what I have been doing generally yields the same result.
When the race is at all close, I have steeled myself to hitting in these sorts of positions. Usually, that is correct even if the opponent has a closed board. In the positions below, a 1-pip difference swings the equity by 0.07!
Mike
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 71Unlimited Game pip: 71
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=-BBaBCBBB----------bbccbb-:2:-1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10 Blue to play 53
1. Rollout1 8/5 8/3* eq: +0.2879
Player:
Opponent:67.96% (G:1.54% B:0.03%)
32.04% (G:1.40% B:0.01%)Conf.: ±0.0015 (+0.2865...+0.2894) - [100.0%]
Duration: 41.2 seconds2. Rollout1 7/4 7/2 eq: +0.2490 (-0.0389)
Player:
Opponent:67.47% (G:0.47% B:0.01%)
32.53% (G:0.37% B:0.01%)Conf.: ±0.0021 (+0.2469...+0.2511) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27.0 seconds1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 84274889
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Rollout by Taper_Mike
2014-Dec-09
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658
Flashcard PositionID 000932a.xgp
n[J j39] "<=5eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 72Unlimited Game pip: 71
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=-BBaBCBBB----------bcbcbb-:2:-1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10 Blue to play 53
1. Rollout1 7/4 7/2 eq: +0.2846
Player:
Opponent:68.87% (G:0.46% B:0.01%)
31.13% (G:0.34% B:0.01%)Conf.: ±0.0021 (+0.2825...+0.2866) - [100.0%]
Duration: 29.3 seconds2. Rollout1 8/3* 6/3 eq: +0.2490 (-0.0356)
Player:
Opponent:66.48% (G:1.00% B:0.02%)
33.52% (G:7.00% B:0.14%)Conf.: ±0.0012 (+0.2478...+0.2502) - [0.0%]
Duration: 54.4 seconds1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 84274889
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Rollout by Taper_Mike
2014-Dec-09
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658
Flashcard PositionID 000932b.xgp
n[j J36] "<=5eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
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