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Contrasting Variants

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Wednesday, 10 December 2014, at 12:00 a.m.

In Response To: Who Woulda And Coulda Known This? (Keene)

Thanks, Paul, for posting these very difficult positions. Thanks also to Keene for mentioning Lamford's Law. I had forgotten it, although in practice what I have been doing generally yields the same result.

When the race is at all close, I have steeled myself to hitting in these sorts of positions. Usually, that is correct even if the opponent has a closed board. In the positions below, a 1-pip difference swings the equity by 0.07!

Mike





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 71
Unlimited Game
pip: 71
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBaBCBBB----------bbccbb-:2:-1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 53

1.Rollout18/5 8/3* eq: +0.2879
Player:
Opponent:
67.96% (G:1.54% B:0.03%)
32.04% (G:1.40% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ±0.0015 (+0.2865...+0.2894) - [100.0%]
Duration: 41.2 seconds
2.Rollout17/4 7/2eq: +0.2490 (-0.0389)
Player:
Opponent:
67.47% (G:0.47% B:0.01%)
32.53% (G:0.37% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ±0.0021 (+0.2469...+0.2511) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27.0 seconds
 
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 84274889
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Taper_Mike
2014-Dec-09
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658
Flashcard PositionID 000932a.xgp
n[J j39] "<=5

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 72
Unlimited Game
pip: 71
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBaBCBBB----------bcbcbb-:2:-1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 53

1.Rollout17/4 7/2eq: +0.2846
Player:
Opponent:
68.87% (G:0.46% B:0.01%)
31.13% (G:0.34% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ±0.0021 (+0.2825...+0.2866) - [100.0%]
Duration: 29.3 seconds
2.Rollout18/3* 6/3eq: +0.2490 (-0.0356)
Player:
Opponent:
66.48% (G:1.00% B:0.02%)
33.52% (G:7.00% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ±0.0012 (+0.2478...+0.2502) - [0.0%]
Duration: 54.4 seconds
 
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 84274889
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Taper_Mike
2014-Dec-09
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658
Flashcard PositionID 000932b.xgp
n[j J36] "<=5

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

 

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