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Contrasting Variants

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Wednesday, 10 December 2014, at 12:00 a.m.

In Response To: Who Woulda And Coulda Known This? (Keene)

Thanks, Paul, for posting these very difficult positions. Thanks also to Keene for mentioning Lamford's Law. I had forgotten it, although in practice what I have been doing generally yields the same result.

When the race is at all close, I have steeled myself to hitting in these sorts of positions. Usually, that is correct even if the opponent has a closed board. In the positions below, a 1-pip difference swings the equity by 0.07!

Mike

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 71 Unlimited Game pip: 71 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBaBCBBB----------bbccbb-:2:-1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 53

1.	Rollout1	8/5 8/3*	eq: +0.2879
	Player: Opponent: 67.96% (G:1.54% B:0.03%) 32.04% (G:1.40% B:0.01%) Conf.: ±0.0015 (+0.2865...+0.2894) - [100.0%] Duration: 41.2 seconds
2.	Rollout1	7/4 7/2	eq: +0.2490 (-0.0389)
	Player: Opponent: 67.47% (G:0.47% B:0.01%) 32.53% (G:0.37% B:0.01%) Conf.: ±0.0021 (+0.2469...+0.2511) - [0.0%] Duration: 27.0 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 84274889 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Taper_Mike 2014-Dec-09 eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658 Flashcard PositionID 000932a.xgp n[J j39] "<=5

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 72 Unlimited Game pip: 71 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBaBCBBB----------bcbcbb-:2:-1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 53

1.	Rollout1	7/4 7/2	eq: +0.2846
	Player: Opponent: 68.87% (G:0.46% B:0.01%) 31.13% (G:0.34% B:0.01%) Conf.: ±0.0021 (+0.2825...+0.2866) - [100.0%] Duration: 29.3 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/3* 6/3	eq: +0.2490 (-0.0356)
	Player: Opponent: 66.48% (G:1.00% B:0.02%) 33.52% (G:7.00% B:0.14%) Conf.: ±0.0012 (+0.2478...+0.2502) - [0.0%] Duration: 54.4 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 84274889 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Taper_Mike 2014-Dec-09 eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658 Flashcard PositionID 000932b.xgp n[j J36] "<=5

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

 

Messages In This Thread

• Who Woulda And Coulda Known This?
  Paul Weaver -- Monday, 8 December 2014, at 5:26 p.m.
  • Who Woulda And Coulda Known This?
    Keene -- Monday, 8 December 2014, at 6:15 p.m.
    • Contrasting Variants
      Taper_Mike -- Wednesday, 10 December 2014, at 12:00 a.m.
      • Contrasting Variants
        Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 11 December 2014, at 2:36 a.m.
        • Contrasting Variants
          Taper_Mike -- Thursday, 11 December 2014, at 10:11 p.m.
  • Who Woulda And Coulda Known This?
    Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 20 December 2014, at 5:10 p.m.