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52S-52K-31-54@-42

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Monday, 5 September 2011, at 6:06 p.m.

In Response To: 52S-52K-31-54@-42 (Timothy Chow)


1O '1O ' '5X '2X ' ' '4O

1X ' ' '2X5O '4O ' ' '5X

54S-32H-65K-51-63H-54@-21U-65R-42


Nack says that as a rule, either five point beats either four point. Is this an exception?

Could be, though it should be a small overturn if at all. White's having anchored on her 20pt argues against Blue's P, but her stripped 8pt argues even more in favor of P. So, could be...

For third roll positions of the type 52S-xxx-42 (with no hits interfering), @ beats P by roughly these (descending) margins:

    Position...........Margin
    52S-42P-42 ...087
    52S-52D-42 ...073
    52S-43S-42 ...066
    52S-21S-42 ...066
    52S-61P-42 ...061
    52S-54S-42 ...056
    52S-62S-42 ...049
    52S-51S-42 ...035
    52S-52S-42 ...035
    52S-63S-42 ...031
    52S-65R-42 ...028
    52S-41T-42 ...025
    52S-63R-42 ...014
    52S-41U-42 ...009
    52S-64P-42 ..017

These are based on old Snowie truncated rollouts, which are close enough for government work. P is better only in the last position (and 64P is the third best reply).

Nack

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