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OLM Tu 09/06/11

Posted By: Justin N.
Date: Wednesday, 7 September 2011, at 2:58 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Tu 09/06/11 (Jason Lee)

Hitting here seems unnecessary. We've already got two in the air, we're shooting at a third, and we're up a mountain in the race... our gammon wins have to be already well over 50% before the roll. Risking a return hit doesn't seem to gain enough additional gammons to offset losses. When we hit, and get hit back, we're REALLY slowed down (read "gammon chances go down significantly") now that we have to enter a 5-point board AND leap BEFORE our biggest asset, our home board, crunches, AND waste two more rolls getting that straggler into our home board and begin bearing off.

If our opponent had a higher point open in her board (even just the three point, which gives us that huge second leaping number), then hitting might be right. Also, our opponent anchoring on the 22 point anchor isn't as big of a threat as an anchor on the 23 or 24 point.

Just bring it home conservatively, and put your builders in the best possible spots. My play is 8/4 16/10.

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