Watch Out for Your Trouble NumberHitting, of course, is out of the question. Blue can still win plenty of gammons here without putting his own neck in a noose to do it. Blue must avoid killing checkers. He needs to keep all his forces trained on the 3pt, either to make it, or for the pick-and-pass. That means the 6 must be played 16/10, and Blue has a choice of 4s: 10/6 or 8/4. As far as the pick-and-pass is concerned, moving to the 4pt is counterproductive for Blue. That would give him a 1 to make the "pick" at a time when he needs to save his 1s and 2s for the "pass" part of the play. On the other hand, after Blue finishes bearing in, he will want to clear his points in order. If there is still a gap on the 3pt at that time, then 3 will be his "trouble number" when he goes to clear the 6pt. Blue would like to have plenty of spares on the 4 and 5pts so that he can play 3s while waiting for a number that clears the 6pt. Piling another checker on the 6pt aggravates the problem. This might be a time to guard against anti-jokers, such as high doublets. No matter what move he makes, White cannot hit him. The only player who can threaten Blue is Blue himself. Were Blue to play 16/10, 8/4, for instance, a roll of 66 next time would force exposure. After moving 16/6 this time, Blue could handle a future 66, but 55 would be a bit awkward for him. It would cause him to clear the 6pt, leaving two outside blots. Finally, Blue wants to keep his spares diversified. As things stand, he has four builders for the 3pt. He wants to keep it that way. For me, the best balance of these factors is to risk the 66, and achive an otherwise broadly flexible position. My vote: 16/10, 8/4 Mike |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00 | ||||||||||||
