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NFL Sunday critical field goals -- OT (math)

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Wednesday, 25 January 2012, at 3:28 p.m.

In Response To: NFL Sunday critical field goals -- OT (answers) (Jason Lee)

What are you cubically fitting, and why?

Plot success rate (made/attempted) as a function of distance for all FG attempts over a six year period. Fit r = a + b*D^3 (r is success rate, D is FG distance, a and b are constants determined by LSQ fitting). Note I WEIGHTED by variance where variance was determined by binomial method on a point-by-point basis.

Why cubic? It looked much better than linear and quadratic.

Uncertainty for a given point was computed as dr = sqrt[da^2 + (db*D^3)^2] where da and db are the LSQ fit uncertainties on a and b.

Messages In This Thread

• NFL Sunday critical field goals -- OT
  Chuck Bower -- Monday, 23 January 2012, at 10:02 p.m.
  • NFL Sunday critical field goals -- OT
    Bill Riles -- Monday, 23 January 2012, at 10:35 p.m.
    • NFL Sunday critical field goals -- OT
      Steve Mellen -- Monday, 23 January 2012, at 11:10 p.m.
    • NFL Sunday critical field goals -- OT
      Jason Lee -- Tuesday, 24 January 2012, at 1:09 a.m.
      • NFL Sunday critical field goals -- OT
        Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 24 January 2012, at 1:12 a.m.
        • NFL Sunday critical field goals -- OT
          Steve Mellen -- Tuesday, 24 January 2012, at 1:18 a.m.
          • NFL Sunday critical field goals -- OT
            Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 24 January 2012, at 1:23 a.m.
            • NFL Sunday critical field goals -- OT
              Sam Pottle -- Tuesday, 24 January 2012, at 4:28 a.m.
              • NFL Sunday critical field goals -- OT
                Jason Lee -- Wednesday, 25 January 2012, at 1:10 a.m.
                • NFL Sunday critical field goals -- OT
                  Sam Pottle -- Wednesday, 25 January 2012, at 1:26 a.m.
    • NFL Sunday critical field goals -- OT
      Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 24 January 2012, at 1:10 a.m.
  • Should they have kept the punt? -- OT
    Sam Pottle -- Monday, 23 January 2012, at 11:57 p.m.
    • Should they have kept the punt? -- OT
      Gregg Cattanach -- Tuesday, 24 January 2012, at 1:17 p.m.
      • Should they have kept the punt? -- OT
        Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 24 January 2012, at 6:19 p.m.
    • Should they have kept the punt? -- OT
      Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 24 January 2012, at 3:40 p.m.
  • NFL Sunday critical field goals -- OT
    lenny -- Tuesday, 24 January 2012, at 7:16 a.m.
    • confusion
      lenny -- Tuesday, 24 January 2012, at 7:34 a.m.
      • confusion
        Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 24 January 2012, at 8:38 a.m.
  • NFL Sunday critical field goals -- OT (answers)
    Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 24 January 2012, at 3:24 p.m.
    • NFL Sunday critical field goals -- OT (answers)
      Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 24 January 2012, at 4:30 p.m.
      • NFL Sunday critical field goals -- OT (answers)
        Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 24 January 2012, at 6:07 p.m.
    • NFL Sunday critical field goals -- OT (answers)
      Jason Lee -- Wednesday, 25 January 2012, at 1:08 a.m.
      • NFL Sunday critical field goals -- OT (answers)
        Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 25 January 2012, at 3:23 a.m.
      • NFL Sunday critical field goals -- OT (math)
        Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 25 January 2012, at 3:28 p.m.
        • NFL Sunday critical field goals -- OT (math)
          Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 25 January 2012, at 3:43 p.m.
          • NFL Sunday critical field goals -- OT (math)
            Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 25 January 2012, at 5:57 p.m.
            • NFL Sunday critical field goals -- OT (math)
              Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 25 January 2012, at 6:34 p.m.
            • NFL Sunday critical field goals -- OT (math)
              Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 25 January 2012, at 11:19 p.m.
              • NFL Sunday critical field goals -- OT (math)
                Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 26 January 2012, at 1:45 a.m.