[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Rollout Results and Commentary

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Tuesday, 14 February 2012, at 4:45 p.m.

In Response To: Tough and Tricky 65 (Paul Weaver)

Four positions and three rollout results are posted below.

42P-62S-53X-53R-65





White is peever

score: 0
pip: 152
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 153
score: 0

Blue is Michel1
XGID=-A-aB-C-B---eEa--c-e-A--A-:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 65

1.Rollout113/7 6/1eq: +0.022
Player:
Opponent:
48.95% (G:17.99% B:0.31%)
51.05% (G:10.66% B:0.55%)
Conf.: 0.013 (+0.008...+0.035) - [99.5%]
Duration: 7 minutes 12 seconds
2.Rollout124/13eq: -0.002 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
49.65% (G:11.41% B:0.35%)
50.35% (G:10.82% B:0.36%)
Conf.: 0.012 (-0.014...+0.010) - [0.5%]
Duration: 8 minutes 12 seconds
3.Rollout113/8 13/7eq: -0.039 (-0.060)
Player:
Opponent:
47.82% (G:16.40% B:0.45%)
52.18% (G:11.82% B:0.62%)
Conf.: 0.013 (-0.052...-0.026) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 15 seconds
4.Rollout121/10eq: -0.040 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:
48.33% (G:12.27% B:0.26%)
51.67% (G:9.90% B:0.36%)
Conf.: 0.013 (-0.053...-0.026) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 03 seconds
5.Rollout121/15 6/1eq: -0.086 (-0.108)
Player:
Opponent:
46.95% (G:13.76% B:0.27%)
53.05% (G:11.11% B:0.54%)
Conf.: 0.013 (-0.099...-0.073) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 23 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01

Blue leads by 10 pips after the play, so I thought running the back checker would be best. I never would have considered 13/7 6/1 (diagrammed below) over the board. This play duplicates White's 4s while giving Blue some attacking chances next turn and down the road.

White has a lot of good 4s: 44 and 22 are jokers, while 42 41 64 could be used to make the 4pt or 7pt. The only unduped 4s are 43 54.





White is peever

score: 0
pip: 152
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 142
score: 0

Blue is Michel1
XGID=-B-aB-BAB---eDa--c-e-A--A-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
White on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01

42P-62S-53 and 42P-62S-52

If I remember correctly, Snowie rollouts (they may or may not have been truncated) indicated that Blue should split with the 2 or 3 and come down 13/8 with the 5. However, the XG rollouts favor hit and split by .003 and .006. In general (there are probably exceptions), split and down when leading in the match, but hit and split when trailing.

In a money game, if you are the better player (Stick has been kind enough to inform us that he is always the better player against all opponents), then hit (leads to more complex positions) but split and down (leads to simpler positions) if you are the weaker player. I am always the weaker player, but I have a crushing lead over Stick in the humility department.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 159
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 161
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--B-DaB---dEa--c-e----B-:0:0:1:53:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 53

1.Rollout124/21 6/1* eq: +0.124
Player:
Opponent:
51.85% (G:17.96% B:0.63%)
48.15% (G:11.67% B:0.57%)
Conf.: 0.004 (+0.120...+0.129) - [83.6%]
Duration: 5 hours 00 minute
2.Rollout124/21 13/8eq: +0.122 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
52.27% (G:15.44% B:0.57%)
47.73% (G:10.62% B:0.43%)
Conf.: 0.004 (+0.118...+0.125) - [16.4%]
Duration: 4 hours 44 minutes
1 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 159
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 161
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--B-DaB---dEa--c-e----B-:0:0:1:52:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 52

1.Rollout124/22 6/1* eq: +0.077
Player:
Opponent:
50.76% (G:17.93% B:0.63%)
49.24% (G:12.55% B:0.62%)
Conf.: 0.006 (+0.071...+0.083) - [93.8%]
Duration: 4 hours 01 minute
2.Rollout124/22 13/8eq: +0.071 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
51.25% (G:14.88% B:0.57%)
48.75% (G:11.40% B:0.44%)
Conf.: 0.005 (+0.066...+0.076) - [6.2%]
Duration: 3 hours 44 minutes
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response

Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:

 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.