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Rollouts

Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 30 March 2012, at 12:18 a.m.

In Response To: Get your QF here (Stick)

First, for money. I included the super QF play in the AtS rollout. I had never intended anyone to make or consider that play.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 162
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 158
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b---BD-B--AdD---d-e-A--A-:0:0:1:63:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 63
1.Rollout124/21 11/5eq: +0.611
Player:
Opponent:		63.31% (G:21.76% B:0.85%)
36.69% (G:6.90% B:0.26%)		Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.602...+0.620) - [88.6%]
Duration: 55 minutes 56 seconds
2.Rollout124/18 21/18eq: +0.604 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		64.33% (G:17.73% B:0.62%)
35.67% (G:7.38% B:0.28%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.597...+0.611) - [11.4%]
Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94104947
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

And AtS.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 162
4 point match
pip: 158
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b---BD-B--AdD---d-e-A--A-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:4:10
Blue to play 63
1.Rollout124/21 11/5eq: +0.855
Player:
Opponent:		63.78% (G:20.80% B:1.57%)
36.22% (G:7.28% B:0.46%)		Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.839...+0.871) - [100.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 35 seconds
2.Rollout124/18 21/18eq: +0.801 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:		64.32% (G:18.20% B:1.17%)
35.68% (G:7.69% B:0.42%)		Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.785...+0.817) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 03 seconds
3.Rollout224/21 13/7eq: +0.650 (-0.205)
Player:
Opponent:		61.35% (G:19.59% B:0.71%)
38.65% (G:8.15% B:0.47%)		Conf.: ± 0.033 (+0.617...+0.683) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 44 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1850476
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 324 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1850476
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

For money anchoring on the 18pt is .041 behind on XGR+ and at 4 away 4 away XGR+ has it back by .089. This is the farthest I've seen XGR+ be off in a 'normal looking position'. OtB I played the lazy regular play of anchoring up on the 18pt without thinking about it at all. When I got super dinged I paid attention. It makes some sense, esp. AtS.

Stick

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