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DK vs World, 7 positions from doubles match

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Saturday, 7 April 2012, at 1:02 p.m.

In Response To: DK vs World, 7 positions from doubles match (mtuhtan)

–

Nice game/match! All of these were a challenge for me, especially the last, where I probably screwed up the match equity calculations.

Mike
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 163
9 point match
pip: 157
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bB-a-D-B---cE--ab-bbb-A-A:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:9:10
White on roll, cube action?

Problem 1

The double seems clear. The take I’m not sure about. All of Blue’s checkers are still in play, but he has an awkward made 2pt, and a near-term prognosis that is not very good.

Double/Take

Problem: – 01 – 02 – 03 – 04 – 05 – 06 – 07
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 147
9 point match
pip: 157
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--B-abD-B---aE--cb-bbb-A-A:1:1:1:61:0:0:0:9:10
Blue to play 61

Problem 2

Gotta unstack. Can’t afford to be hit on the 18pt. Need anchor. All of these suggest slotting the bar point.

Problem: – 01 – 02 – 03 – 04 – 05 – 06 – 07
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 35
9 point match
pip: 41
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aCBBBD-----------------cd-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:9:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Problem 3

I wait a turn in this position. Were my spares better placed, I would double now.

Problem: – 01 – 02 – 03 – 04 – 05 – 06 – 07
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 35
9 point match
pip: 41
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aCBBBD-----------------cd-:2:-1:1:41:0:0:0:9:10
Blue to play 41

Problem 4

Rip one off. If Blue doesn’t, he might find himself stuck clearing the 5pt next turn, and won’t bear off again until the turn after that.

Problem: – 01 – 02 – 03 – 04 – 05 – 06 – 07
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 35
9 point match
pip: 36
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aDBBCB-----------------cd-:2:-1:1:43:0:0:0:9:10
Blue to play 43

Problem 5

This is what I was worried about. Ripping 2 is fine. I don’t like clearing the 5pt.

Problem: – 01 – 02 – 03 – 04 – 05 – 06 – 07
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 25
9 point match
pip: 22
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-ECAB-----a------------cd-:2:-1:-1:00:0:0:0:9:10
White on roll, cube action?

Problem 6

White needs 10 crossovers; Blue, 11. White could waste a half roll easily. I’m not so sure about wasting a full roll, but it may be irrelevant, because wasting a half roll costs the same as wasting a full roll. And White will still be OK, even when he wastes a full roll, so long as Blue isn’t pounding out the doublets. I think Blue will need to roll more doublets than White if he is to win. He can’t do it with non-doublets. Double, small take.

Problem: – 01 – 02 – 03 – 04 – 05 – 06 – 07
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 3
9 point match
pip: 8
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--B-A-------------------c-:3:1:1:00:0:0:0:9:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Problem 7

Neither side wants to go down 8-0 in a 9-point match. The XG2 Kazaross MET only gives the trailer a 6.75% MWC. So the take is a near certainty. Is this a double? Even if Blue rolls 21 on the first toss, he can still be off in two rolls so long as he does not roll 11 or a 2 or 3 without a 4, 5 or 6 on the second. The bad rolls are 11 21 31 and 32 (22 and 33 are fine). Similarly, when Blue rolls 31 on the first roll, he will have trouble only when he rolls a non-doublet ace on the second. Throw in the odd 11 followed by 21, and you have the lot.

P( lose when White rolls doublets ) = 32/36 * 1/6
P( lose with 11 ) = 1/36 * 5/6 * 2/36
P( lose with 21 ) = 2/36 * 5/6 * 7/36
P( lose with 31 ) = 2/36 * 5/6 * 10/36
P( lose ) = sum = 17.1%

Probably I have missed something, but hopefully I am close.

MWC( ND/win ) = 93.25%
MWC( ND/lose ) = 6.75%
MWC( D/T/win ) = 100%
MWC( D/T/lose ) = 0%
MWC( D/P ) = 93.25%

Risk = 6.75%
Reward = 6.75%

Blue is laying even money on a proposition where he is an 82.9% favorite.

Double/Take

Problem: – 01 – 02 – 03 – 04 – 05 – 06 – 07

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