Rollouts

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Rollouts

Posted By: mtuhtan
Date: Monday, 9 April 2012, at 6:29 p.m.

In Response To: DK vs World, 7 positions from doubles match (mtuhtan)

1. OTB: double/take

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 163

9 point match

pip: 157
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-bB-a-D-B---cE--ab-bbb-A-A:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:9:10
White on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70,46% (G:27,66% B:1,25%) 70,59% (G:28,42% B:1,37%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29,54% (G:7,34% B:0,41%) 29,41% (G:7,55% B:0,50%)
Cubeless Equities +0,620 +1,288
Cubeful Equities
No double: +0,916 (-0,084) ą0,007 (+0,909..+0,922)
Double/Take: +1,069 (+0,069) ą0,010 (+1,059..+1,079)
Double/Pass: +1,000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13478620
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Double Decision confidence: 100,0%
Take Decision confidence: 100,0%
Duration: 26 minutes 19 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

2. OTB: bar/24 13/7

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 147

9 point match

pip: 157
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=--B-abD-B---aE--cb-bbb-A-A:1:1:1:61:0:0:0:9:10
Blue to play 61
1. Rollout¹ Bar/18 eq: -0,606
Player:
Opponent: 28,00% (G:5,29% B:0,23%)
72,00% (G:29,77% B:1,09%) Conf.: ą 0,006 (-0,612...-0,601) - [100,0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 57 seconds
2. Rollout¹ Bar/24 13/7 eq: -0,671 (-0,065)
Player:
Opponent: 25,17% (G:4,71% B:0,22%)
74,83% (G:28,28% B:1,67%) Conf.: ą 0,006 (-0,677...-0,665) - [0,0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 29 seconds
3. 3-ply Bar/24 8/2 eq: -0,839 (-0,232)
Player:
Opponent: 21,03% (G:3,58% B:0,09%)
78,97% (G:33,57% B:2,23%)

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13478620
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

3. OTB: redouble/take

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 35

9 point match

pip: 41
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=aCBBBD-----------------cd-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:9:10
Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67,77% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) 67,76% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32,23% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) 32,24% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
Cubeless Equities +0,355 +0,738
Cubeful Equities
No redouble: +0,640 ą0,005 (+0,635..+0,645)
Redouble/Take: +0,532 (-0,108) ą0,006 (+0,526..+0,538)
Redouble/Pass: +1,000 (+0,360)

Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 18,7%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13478620
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Double Decision confidence: 100,0%
Take Decision confidence: 100,0%
Duration: 1,8 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

4. OTB: 5/4 5/1

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 35

9 point match

pip: 41
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=aCBBBD-----------------cd-:2:-1:1:41:0:0:0:9:10
Blue to play 41
1. Rollout¹ 5/Off eq: +0,108
Player:
Opponent: 61,76% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
38,24% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) Conf.: ą 0,003 (+0,105...+0,111) - [100,0%]
Duration: 1,4 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 5/4 5/1 eq: -0,057 (-0,166)
Player:
Opponent: 55,16% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
44,84% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) Conf.: ą 0,003 (-0,060...-0,055) - [0,0%]
Duration: 0,7 second
3. 3-ply 4/3 4/Off eq: -0,141 (-0,250)
Player:
Opponent: 52,34% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
47,66% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
4. 3-ply 4/Off 1/Off eq: -0,156 (-0,265)
Player:
Opponent: 50,31% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
49,69% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
5. 2-ply 5/1 4/3 eq: -0,393 (-0,502)
Player:
Opponent: 38,28% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
61,72% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13478620
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

5. OTB: 5/2 5/1

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 35

9 point match

pip: 36
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=aDBBCB-----------------cd-:2:-1:1:43:0:0:0:9:10
Blue to play 43
1. Rollout¹ 5/2 4/Off eq: -0,086
Player:
Opponent: 52,57% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
47,43% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) Conf.: ą 0,002 (-0,088...-0,085) - [100,0%]
Duration: 1,3 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 4/Off 3/Off eq: -0,102 (-0,016)
Player:
Opponent: 53,11% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
46,89% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) Conf.: ą 0,002 (-0,104...-0,100) - [0,0%]
Duration: 2,9 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 5/2 5/1 eq: -0,154 (-0,068)
Player:
Opponent: 50,82% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
49,18% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) Conf.: ą 0,002 (-0,156...-0,152) - [0,0%]
Duration: 0,8 second
4. 4-ply 4/1 4/Off eq: -0,218 (-0,132)
Player:
Opponent: 46,57% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
53,43% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
5. 3-ply 5/1 4/1 eq: -0,386 (-0,299)
Player:
Opponent: 39,47% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
60,53% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13478620
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

6. OTB: redouble/take

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 25

9 point match

pip: 22
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-ECAB-----a------------cd-:2:-1:-1:00:0:0:0:9:10
White on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70,08% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) 70,08% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29,92% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) 29,92% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
Cubeless Equities +0,402 +0,791
Cubeful Equities
No redouble: +0,674 (-0,080) ą0,001 (+0,672..+0,675)
Redouble/Take: +0,754 ą0,001 (+0,753..+0,755)
Redouble/Pass: +1,000 (+0,246)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13478620
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Double Decision confidence: 100,0%
Take Decision confidence: 100,0%
Duration: 4,0 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

7. OTB: redouble/take

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 3

9 point match

pip: 8
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=--B-A-------------------c-:3:1:1:00:0:0:0:9:10
Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 83,33% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) 83,33% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 16,67% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) 16,67% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
Cubeless Equities +0,667 +0,751
Cubeful Equities
No redouble: +0,675 (-0,075) ą0,000 (+0,675..+0,675)
Redouble/Take: +0,751 ą0,000 (+0,751..+0,751)
Redouble/Pass: +1,000 (+0,249)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13478620
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Double Decision confidence: 100,0%
Take Decision confidence: 100,0%
Duration: 0,3 second

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

DK vs World, 7 positions from doubles match
mtuhtan -- Saturday, 7 April 2012, at 10:44 a.m.
- DK vs World, 7 positions from doubles match
  Taper_Mike -- Saturday, 7 April 2012, at 1:02 p.m.
- DK vs World, 7 positions from doubles match
  Dmitriy Obukhov -- Saturday, 7 April 2012, at 4:51 p.m.
- DK vs World, 7 positions from doubles match
  christian munk-christensen -- Saturday, 7 April 2012, at 4:58 p.m.
  - DK vs World, 7 positions from doubles match
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 8 April 2012, at 1:11 p.m.
- DK vs World, 7 positions from doubles match
  Stick -- Saturday, 7 April 2012, at 6:58 p.m.
- DK vs World, 7 positions from doubles match
  neilkaz -- Saturday, 7 April 2012, at 8:33 p.m.
- DK vs World, 7 positions from doubles match
  Taper_Mike -- Saturday, 7 April 2012, at 8:41 p.m.
- Rollouts
  mtuhtan -- Monday, 9 April 2012, at 6:29 p.m.

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