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Rollouts
Posted By: mtuhtan
Date: Monday, 9 April 2012, at 6:42 p.m.
In Response To: Nordic Open : Recube too 16 for Falafel ? (Carlo Melzi)
1.
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 9511 point match pip: 109
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=aCDCaBBadbbbbA:2:1:1:15:0:0:0:11:10 Blue to play 15
1. XG Roller++ Bar/20 8/7* eq: 0,166
Player:
Opponent:50,40% (G:16,81% B:0,92%)
49,60% (G:27,78% B:1,28%)2. XG Roller++ Bar/20 5/4 eq: 0,261 (0,095)
Player:
Opponent:46,57% (G:7,87% B:0,40%)
53,43% (G:9,41% B:0,08%)3. XG Roller+ Bar/20 6/5 eq: 0,331 (0,166)
Player:
Opponent:44,19% (G:6,51% B:0,33%)
55,81% (G:9,45% B:0,07%)4. XG Roller+ Bar/20 4/3 eq: 0,351 (0,185)
Player:
Opponent:45,22% (G:7,77% B:0,32%)
54,78% (G:19,11% B:0,21%)5. XG Roller+ Bar/20 9/8 eq: 0,600 (0,434)
Player:
Opponent:35,23% (G:5,32% B:0,23%)
64,77% (G:24,98% B:0,31%)eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
2.
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 10211 point match pip: 103
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=aaCDCAABadAbbbb:2:1:1:00:0:0:0:11:10 White on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No redouble Redouble/Take Player Winning Chances: 49,47% (G:27,56% B:1,30%) 49,49% (G:26,28% B:1,09%) Opponent Winning Chances: 50,53% (G:16,88% B:0,90%) 50,51% (G:15,18% B:0,75%) Cubeless Equities +0,095 +0,039 Cubeful Equities No redouble: +0,161 Redouble/Take: 0,101 (0,262) Redouble/Pass: +1,000 (+0,839) Best Cube action: No redouble / Take Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 19,2% eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
3.
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 9711 point match pip: 103
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=aaCDCAABeAbbbb:3:1:1:00:0:0:0:11:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take Player Winning Chances: 77,41% (G:13,56% B:0,44%) 77,73% (G:12,36% B:0,47%) Opponent Winning Chances: 22,59% (G:4,53% B:0,16%) 22,27% (G:5,04% B:0,05%) Cubeless Equities +0,572 +0,703 Cubeful Equities No redouble: +0,708 ±0,002 (+0,705..+0,710) Redouble/Take: +0,703 (0,005) ±0,003 (+0,700..+0,706) Redouble/Pass: +1,000 (+0,292) Best Cube action: No redouble / Take Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 1,6% Rollout details 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13478620
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 99,3% Take Decision confidence: 100,0% Duration: 3 minutes 24 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
4.
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 9711 point match pip: 103
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=aaCDCAABeAbbbb:3:1:1:24:0:0:0:11:10 Blue to play 24
1. Rollout^{1} 6/2* 4/2 eq: +0,514
Player:
Opponent:69,30% (G:12,29% B:0,30%)
30,70% (G:11,54% B:0,48%)Conf.: ± 0,004 (+0,511...+0,518)  [100,0%]
Duration: 1 minute 33 seconds2. Rollout^{1} 9/7 8/4 eq: +0,468 (0,047)
Player:
Opponent:67,04% (G:10,66% B:0,44%)
32,96% (G:6,68% B:0,21%)Conf.: ± 0,004 (+0,464...+0,472)  [0,0%]
Duration: 1 minute 33 seconds3. 3ply 20/16 9/7 eq: +0,339 (0,176)
Player:
Opponent:62,44% (G:11,57% B:0,44%)
37,56% (G:15,61% B:0,33%)4. 3ply 9/7 6/2* eq: +0,300 (0,214)
Player:
Opponent:61,14% (G:12,80% B:0,47%)
38,86% (G:20,74% B:1,13%)5. 3ply 9/7 5/1* eq: +0,257 (0,257)
Player:
Opponent:59,30% (G:13,40% B:0,42%)
40,70% (G:20,11% B:0,98%)^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13478620
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollereXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
5.
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 9011 point match pip: 97
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=aaDDCBAcAbccb:3:1:1:00:0:0:0:11:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take Player Winning Chances: 84,65% (G:16,14% B:0,56%) 85,01% (G:14,85% B:0,34%) Opponent Winning Chances: 15,35% (G:1,00% B:0,01%) 14,99% (G:1,07% B:0,01%) Cubeless Equities +0,733 +0,888 Cubeful Equities No redouble: +0,860 (0,027) ±0,003 (+0,858..+0,863) Redouble/Take: +0,888 ±0,004 (+0,884..+0,891) Redouble/Pass: +1,000 (+0,112) Best Cube action: Redouble / Take Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13478620
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 100,0% Take Decision confidence: 100,0% Duration: 1 minute 27 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
6.
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 8111 point match pip: 93
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=aBCDBBAacAbccb:3:1:1:00:0:0:0:11:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take Player Winning Chances: 83,93% (G:7,88% B:0,26%) 84,12% (G:7,16% B:0,23%) Opponent Winning Chances: 16,07% (G:0,80% B:0,01%) 15,88% (G:0,73% B:0,01%) Cubeless Equities +0,698 +0,865 Cubeful Equities No redouble: +0,845 (0,020) ±0,003 (+0,842..+0,848) Redouble/Take: +0,865 ±0,003 (+0,862..+0,868) Redouble/Pass: +1,000 (+0,135) Best Cube action: Redouble / Take Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13478620
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 100,0% Take Decision confidence: 100,0% Duration: 1 minute 06 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

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