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Rollouts

Posted By: mtuhtan
Date: Monday, 9 April 2012, at 6:42 p.m.

In Response To: Nordic Open : Recube too 16 for Falafel ? (Carlo Melzi)

1.

White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 95 11 point match pip: 109 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=--a-CDCaBB-----a---d-bbbbA:2:-1:1:15:0:0:0:11:10 Blue to play 15

1. XG Roller++ Bar/20 8/7* eq: -0,166 Player: Opponent: 50,40% (G:16,81% B:0,92%) 49,60% (G:27,78% B:1,28%) 2. XG Roller++ Bar/20 5/4 eq: -0,261 (-0,095) Player: Opponent: 46,57% (G:7,87% B:0,40%) 53,43% (G:9,41% B:0,08%) 3. XG Roller+ Bar/20 6/5 eq: -0,331 (-0,166) Player: Opponent: 44,19% (G:6,51% B:0,33%) 55,81% (G:9,45% B:0,07%) 4. XG Roller+ Bar/20 4/3 eq: -0,351 (-0,185) Player: Opponent: 45,22% (G:7,77% B:0,32%) 54,78% (G:19,11% B:0,21%) 5. XG Roller+ Bar/20 9/8 eq: -0,600 (-0,434) Player: Opponent: 35,23% (G:5,32% B:0,23%) 64,77% (G:24,98% B:0,31%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

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2.

White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 102 11 point match pip: 103 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=a-a-CDCAAB-----a---dAbbbb-:2:-1:-1:00:0:0:0:11:10 White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No redouble Redouble/Take Player Winning Chances: 49,47% (G:27,56% B:1,30%) 49,49% (G:26,28% B:1,09%) Opponent Winning Chances: 50,53% (G:16,88% B:0,90%) 50,51% (G:15,18% B:0,75%) Cubeless Equities +0,095 +0,039 Cubeful Equities No redouble: +0,161 Redouble/Take: -0,101 (-0,262) Redouble/Pass: +1,000 (+0,839) Best Cube action: No redouble / Take Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 19,2%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

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3.

White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 97 11 point match pip: 103 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=-aa-CDCAAB---------eAbbbb-:3:1:1:00:0:0:0:11:10 Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take Player Winning Chances: 77,41% (G:13,56% B:0,44%) 77,73% (G:12,36% B:0,47%) Opponent Winning Chances: 22,59% (G:4,53% B:0,16%) 22,27% (G:5,04% B:0,05%) Cubeless Equities +0,572 +0,703 Cubeful Equities No redouble: +0,708 ±0,002 (+0,705..+0,710) Redouble/Take: +0,703 (-0,005) ±0,003 (+0,700..+0,706) Redouble/Pass: +1,000 (+0,292) Best Cube action: No redouble / Take Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 1,6% Rollout details 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 13478620 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller Double Decision confidence: 99,3% Take Decision confidence: 100,0% Duration: 3 minutes 24 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

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4.

White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 97 11 point match pip: 103 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=-aa-CDCAAB---------eAbbbb-:3:1:1:24:0:0:0:11:10 Blue to play 24

1. Rollout1 6/2* 4/2 eq: +0,514 Player: Opponent: 69,30% (G:12,29% B:0,30%) 30,70% (G:11,54% B:0,48%) Conf.: ± 0,004 (+0,511...+0,518) - [100,0%] Duration: 1 minute 33 seconds 2. Rollout1 9/7 8/4 eq: +0,468 (-0,047) Player: Opponent: 67,04% (G:10,66% B:0,44%) 32,96% (G:6,68% B:0,21%) Conf.: ± 0,004 (+0,464...+0,472) - [0,0%] Duration: 1 minute 33 seconds 3. 3-ply 20/16 9/7 eq: +0,339 (-0,176) Player: Opponent: 62,44% (G:11,57% B:0,44%) 37,56% (G:15,61% B:0,33%) 4. 3-ply 9/7 6/2* eq: +0,300 (-0,214) Player: Opponent: 61,14% (G:12,80% B:0,47%) 38,86% (G:20,74% B:1,13%) 5. 3-ply 9/7 5/1* eq: +0,257 (-0,257) Player: Opponent: 59,30% (G:13,40% B:0,42%) 40,70% (G:20,11% B:0,98%) 1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 13478620 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

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5.

White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 90 11 point match pip: 97 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=-aa-DDCB-A---------cAbccb-:3:1:1:00:0:0:0:11:10 Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take Player Winning Chances: 84,65% (G:16,14% B:0,56%) 85,01% (G:14,85% B:0,34%) Opponent Winning Chances: 15,35% (G:1,00% B:0,01%) 14,99% (G:1,07% B:0,01%) Cubeless Equities +0,733 +0,888 Cubeful Equities No redouble: +0,860 (-0,027) ±0,003 (+0,858..+0,863) Redouble/Take: +0,888 ±0,004 (+0,884..+0,891) Redouble/Pass: +1,000 (+0,112) Best Cube action: Redouble / Take Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 13478620 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller Double Decision confidence: 100,0% Take Decision confidence: 100,0% Duration: 1 minute 27 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

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6.

White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 81 11 point match pip: 93 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=-a-BCDBB-A-a-------cAbccb-:3:1:1:00:0:0:0:11:10 Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take Player Winning Chances: 83,93% (G:7,88% B:0,26%) 84,12% (G:7,16% B:0,23%) Opponent Winning Chances: 16,07% (G:0,80% B:0,01%) 15,88% (G:0,73% B:0,01%) Cubeless Equities +0,698 +0,865 Cubeful Equities No redouble: +0,845 (-0,020) ±0,003 (+0,842..+0,848) Redouble/Take: +0,865 ±0,003 (+0,862..+0,868) Redouble/Pass: +1,000 (+0,135) Best Cube action: Redouble / Take Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 13478620 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller Double Decision confidence: 100,0% Take Decision confidence: 100,0% Duration: 1 minute 06 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• Nordic Open : Recube too 16 for Falafel ?
  Karl Frogner -- Friday, 6 April 2012, at 11:40 p.m.
  • Nordic Open : Recube too 16 for Falafel ?
    Carlo Melzi -- Friday, 6 April 2012, at 11:55 p.m.
    • Nordic Open : Recube too 16 for Falafel ?
      mtuhtan -- Saturday, 7 April 2012, at 8:34 a.m.
    • Nordic Open : Recube too 16 for Falafel ?
      Casper van der Tak -- Saturday, 7 April 2012, at 9:16 a.m.
    • Nordic Open : Recube too 16 for Falafel ?
      higonefive -- Saturday, 7 April 2012, at 10:51 a.m.
      • Nordic Open : Recube too 16 for Falafel ?
        Henrik Bukkjaer -- Saturday, 7 April 2012, at 2:12 p.m.
    • Rollouts
      mtuhtan -- Monday, 9 April 2012, at 6:42 p.m.
      • Rollouts
        Henrik Bukkjaer -- Monday, 9 April 2012, at 9:42 p.m.
        • Rollouts
          Stick -- Monday, 9 April 2012, at 10:00 p.m.
  • Nordic Open : Recube too 16 for Falafel ?
    Dmitriy Obukhov -- Saturday, 7 April 2012, at 3:19 a.m.
  • Nordic Open : Recube too 16 for Falafel ?
    Stick -- Saturday, 7 April 2012, at 7:41 a.m.
    • Nordic Open : Recube too 16 for Falafel ?
      Karl Frogner -- Saturday, 7 April 2012, at 2:14 p.m.
      • Nordic Open : Recube too 16 for Falafel ?
        Stick -- Saturday, 7 April 2012, at 3:16 p.m.
    • Nordic Open : Recube too 16 for Falafel ?
      higonefive -- Saturday, 7 April 2012, at 5:15 p.m.
      • Nordic Open : Recube too 16 for Falafel ?
        christian munk-christensen -- Sunday, 8 April 2012, at 8:05 a.m.
        • Nordic Open : Recube too 16 for Falafel ?
          Henrik Bukkjaer -- Sunday, 8 April 2012, at 11:44 p.m.
  • Nordic Open : Recube too 16 for Falafel ?
    christian munk-christensen -- Saturday, 7 April 2012, at 8:35 a.m.
  • Nordic Open : Recube too 16 for Falafel ?
    higonefive -- Saturday, 7 April 2012, at 10:13 a.m.