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Daily Quiz 3/31: GNU 4-ply evaluations

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 9 April 2012, at 5:53 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 3/31 (Daily Quiz)

The score (after 0 games) is: White 6, Blue 0 (match to 21 points)

White	165
Blue	155
Position ID: jGfwABawZ/ARIA Match ID: cAm3AmAAAAAE

• Blue moves 24/13

Alert: bad move ( -0.064)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	4	16/10 13/8	+0.527
			0.618 0.158 0.006 - 0.382 0.097 0.003
	2	4	16/5	+0.504 ( -0.023)
			0.617 0.152 0.006 - 0.383 0.096 0.002
•	3	4	24/13	+0.463 ( -0.064)
			0.623 0.112 0.004 - 0.377 0.093 0.002
	4	4	24/18 16/11	+0.436 ( -0.091)
			0.606 0.142 0.006 - 0.394 0.115 0.003

---

Variant (equal score):

The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 0 (match to 21 points)

White	165
Blue	155
Position ID: jGfwABawZ/ARIA Match ID: cAm3AgAAAAAE

• Blue moves 24/13

Alert: doubtful move ( -0.048)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	4	16/10 13/8	+0.452
			0.618 0.159 0.006 - 0.382 0.098 0.002
	2	4	16/5	+0.435 ( -0.017)
			0.617 0.151 0.006 - 0.383 0.096 0.002
•	3	4	24/13	+0.404 ( -0.048)
			0.622 0.114 0.005 - 0.378 0.093 0.002
	4	4	24/18 16/11	+0.366 ( -0.085)
			0.606 0.142 0.006 - 0.394 0.115 0.003

---

---

Five shots seems to be too much for such a borderline play-on.

The score (after 0 games) is: White 6, Blue 2 (match to 21 points)

Move number 3: Blue to play 31

White	136
Blue	115
Position ID: ZM+RA0AzzpQHAA Match ID: cImlAmAAEAAE

• Blue moves 8/5 6/5

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+0.810	(Money: +0.810)
	0.771 0.308 0.003 - 0.229 0.042 0.001
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+1.028
2.	Double, take	+1.547	+0.519
3.	Double, pass	+1.000	-0.028
Proper cube action:		Too good to double, pass (5.1%)

Alert: doubtful move ( -0.048)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	4	13/10 11/10	+1.015
			0.765 0.209 0.002 - 0.235 0.029 0.000
•	2	4	8/5 6/5	+0.967 ( -0.048)
			0.744 0.292 0.004 - 0.256 0.044 0.001

---

With the cube already turned, making the 5pt seems to be best, as I suspected:

The score (after 0 games) is: White 6, Blue 2 (match to 21 points)

Move number 5: Blue to play 31

White	136
Blue	115
Position ID: ZM+RA0AzzpQHAA Match ID: QYmlAmAAEAAE

• Blue moves 8/5 6/5

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	4	8/5 6/5	+0.692
			0.745 0.288 0.003 - 0.255 0.043 0.001
	2	4	13/10 11/10	+0.662 ( -0.029)
			0.765 0.208 0.002 - 0.235 0.028 0.000

---

---

GNU 4-ply needs to be taken with a grain of salt here, but I can believe that the normal priming play of 17/15 13/7 is best here.

The score (after 0 games) is: White 6, Blue 3 (match to 21 points)

Move number 5: Blue to play 22

White	191
Blue	114
Position ID: zHYAwGy4PZNCAA Match ID: QQmpAmAAGAAE

• Blue moves 17/13 6/2

Alert: bad move ( -0.066)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	4	17/15 13/7	+0.778
			0.698 0.418 0.059 - 0.302 0.032 0.001
	2	4	13/7 10/8	+0.757 ( -0.021)
			0.692 0.413 0.057 - 0.308 0.032 0.001
	3	4	13/7 6/4	+0.750 ( -0.028)
			0.688 0.413 0.058 - 0.312 0.034 0.001
	4	4	13/7 4/2	+0.747 ( -0.031)
			0.700 0.407 0.054 - 0.300 0.056 0.004
	5	4	13/11 6/2 4/2	+0.746 ( -0.032)
			0.677 0.421 0.064 - 0.323 0.024 0.000
	6	4	17/15 6/2 4/2	+0.746 ( -0.032)
			0.677 0.421 0.063 - 0.323 0.024 0.000
	7	4	13/7 12/10	+0.740 ( -0.038)
			0.684 0.411 0.058 - 0.316 0.031 0.001
	8	4	6/2(2)	+0.739 ( -0.039)
			0.675 0.423 0.063 - 0.325 0.027 0.001
	9	4	12/10 6/2 4/2	+0.739 ( -0.039)
			0.675 0.420 0.064 - 0.325 0.026 0.001
	10	4	8/2 4/2	+0.725 ( -0.053)
			0.671 0.420 0.063 - 0.329 0.029 0.001
	11	4	10/8 6/2 4/2	+0.725 ( -0.053)
			0.671 0.418 0.062 - 0.329 0.027 0.001
	12	4	17/9	+0.721 ( -0.057)
			0.680 0.405 0.057 - 0.320 0.033 0.001
•	13	4	17/13 6/2	+0.713 ( -0.066)
			0.682 0.403 0.055 - 0.318 0.045 0.001

Messages In This Thread

• Daily Quiz 3/31
  Daily Quiz -- Saturday, 7 April 2012, at 2:43 a.m.
  • Daily Quiz 3/31
    MishyPoo -- Saturday, 7 April 2012, at 3:24 a.m.
  • Daily Quiz 3/31
    kruidenbuiltje -- Saturday, 7 April 2012, at 8:52 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 3/31
    David Rennie -- Sunday, 8 April 2012, at 12:06 a.m.
  • Daily Quiz 3/31
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 8 April 2012, at 8:55 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 3/31: GNU 4-ply evaluations
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 9 April 2012, at 5:53 p.m.