I played 16/11 OtB, as hitting loose creates another blot and doesn't solve the problem of getting the outfield checker home. XG dinged me for it -- what else is new?
XG's top choice is one I considered and rejected. I felt it was more important to do something with the outfield checkers and, besides, it looked better to slot the 2 than the 4: fewer shots, duplication of 1s, more convenient to cover. Not so says the bot, and by a clear margin. The 4pt is the harder problem to solve, and now's the time to go after it, before White beefs up his board.
          
 
           
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 180 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 139
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a-B-bD-Cc--cC-BA--ca-b---:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 41 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 16/15 8/4 | eq: +0.346 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.57% (G:15.96% B:0.56%)
41.43% (G:9.95% B:0.35%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.338...+0.355) - [99.1%]
Duration: 2 hours 07 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 16/11 | eq: +0.332 (-0.014) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.07% (G:16.09% B:0.61%)
41.93% (G:10.70% B:0.40%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.324...+0.340) - [0.8%]
Duration: 2 hours 01 minute |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | 16/15 6/2 | eq: +0.317 (-0.030) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 57.65% (G:16.61% B:0.60%)
42.35% (G:11.03% B:0.46%) | Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.301...+0.332) - [0.1%]
Duration: 29 minutes 26 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout2 | 6/1* | eq: +0.315 (-0.032) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 57.86% (G:16.93% B:0.46%)
42.14% (G:11.06% B:0.47%) | Conf.: ± 0.018 (+0.297...+0.332) - [0.1%]
Duration: 33 minutes 48 seconds |
|
| 5. | XG Roller++ | 8/3 | eq: +0.240 (-0.107) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.87% (G:16.09% B:0.44%)
44.13% (G:11.65% B:0.42%) | |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03