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OTB thoughts and RO result

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Monday, 6 May 2013, at 3:49 a.m.

In Response To: Cube decision after a horrible crashing sequence (neilkaz)

OTB I felt that I technically had a recube here as hit/dance or double hit looks like a market loss and it is possible for him to crash further. However, I also felt that the cube was a take since I am way behind in the pip count, and that is still a 4 pt board and if my opp can run a checker from the 4 pt, my attack may fail sometimes.

I felt that my opp was at least 100 Elo weaker than me and that he was looking to jack up the action (his recube was quite early and a Whopper I felt). However, he'd butcher his 64 two turns ago by not playing 21/15 which at that time made the 15 pt and then he was punished with a 44 and a horrid busting double blot forcing 54. He played the 54 quite slowly and shuffled checkers (u c this on GG) even though there were only two plays, and the other was clearly worse. This caused me to suspect that he might pass a quick recube.

A horror roll can be shocking to many humans and he though for 8-10 seconds and passed the 8 cube !!

Analysis of the match shows that I may be 200 Elo stronger, and believe me, there's no way I'd basically play this position for match if I was certain he'd take. Perhaps I shouldn't have risked it anyhow.





White is prucea

score: 0
pip: 90
11 point match
pip: 144
score: 0

Blue is neilkaz
XGID=-B--bBB-CC--------aabbeCb-:2:1:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.644% (G:19.401% B:1.135%) 68.217% (G:19.109% B:1.461%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.356% (G:10.085% B:0.565%) 31.783% (G:11.358% B:1.454%)
Cubeless Equities +0.4462 +0.7586
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.7112±0.0029 (+0.7083..+0.7140)
Redouble/Take:+0.6942 (-0.0169)±0.0038 (+0.6904..+0.6981)
Redouble/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.2888)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 5.2%
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78623594
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.192.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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