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A Heuristic For Playing The 21 Opening Roll ATS

Posted By: AdamStocks
Date: Friday, 10 May 2013, at 2:32 a.m.

I recently got so fed up with losing equity with the 21 opening roll ATS that I decided to devise some sort of guide to splitting or slotting that can be easily used over the board, and has a decent level of accuracy as measured against XG2 world class default setting. (i.e. not fully rolled out, since I wanted to have an intermediate benchmark). This heuristic rule is applicable to any score (Pre- & Post- Crawford and Crawford) upto 15away,15away:

Player A is A-away, Player B is B-away Player A is to play 21

If (EvenA-away,1-away,PostCrawford) OR (0.6 * A + 2.5 < B) Then SPLIT Else SLOT

SPLIT is 24/23 13/11, SLOT is 13/11 6/5

I counted a total of 253 entries (225 Non-Crawford scores + 28 Crawford scores), of which 243 agree with XG2 default world class setting with Kazaross XG2 MET. The total combined error of the 10 disagreements is 0.249 MWC%, equating to a total of 0.0242 EMG (the largest of which is 0.0087 EMG, smallest is 0.0001 EMG). This may change upon further study, but this heuristic seems like a reasonably good approximation.

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