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match cube #2 -- Rollout (unlimted/$)

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Saturday, 8 June 2013, at 3:21 p.m.

In Response To: match cube #2 -- Rollout (Chuck Bower)

One might think that White's two-way winning chances (racing + contact) are enough to take. A couple issues are that White can't keep both options open for long, and that Blue has contact options, too. Add to that the fact that some future contact recubes probably aren't very efficient (i.e. Blue won't be close to a take).





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 80
Unlimited Game
pip: 72
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-ABaBEC-B---a------bbbcbb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 78.370% (G:1.413% B:0.011%) 78.441% (G:1.334% B:0.010%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.630% (G:0.269% B:0.006%) 21.559% (G:0.267% B:0.005%)
Cubeless Equities +0.5789 +1.1591
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.8248 (-0.1752)±0.0045 (+0.8203..+0.8293)
Double/Take:+1.0608 (+0.0608)±0.0086 (+1.0522..+1.0694)
Double/Pass:+1.0000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 95103534
Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 25.5 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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