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match cube #2 -- Rollout (reversed score)

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Saturday, 8 June 2013, at 3:26 p.m.

In Response To: match cube #2 -- Rollout (Chuck Bower)

Just another of many examples of the fallacy of thinking that match trailer has more cube value than leader.





White is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 80
5 point match
pip: 72
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-ABaBEC-B---a------bbbcbb-:0:0:1:00:0:3:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 78.425% (G:1.438% B:0.012%) 78.378% (G:1.377% B:0.010%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.575% (G:0.233% B:0.004%) 21.622% (G:0.214% B:0.003%)
Cubeless Equities +0.5759 +0.8437
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.7650 (-0.0786)±0.0043 (+0.7608..+0.7693)
Double/Take:+0.8437±0.0053 (+0.8384..+0.8490)
Double/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.1563)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 95103534
Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 13.8 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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