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:::::: ROLLOUT ::::::::::

Posted By: MishyPoo
Date: Tuesday, 18 June 2013, at 5:37 p.m.

In Response To: A Stacky Gappy Mess! (MishyPoo)

Here is the story with this position.
It was a friendly game, I was chatting with my opp during it, and this cube decision was discussed in great detail as I was making my choice. (I talked, the opp listened).

My thought process:
Yes, the Takepoint is what? 17% and I did feel that I had more than a 17% chance to win this game, but I also felt that Blue did have a very gammony board and if I were to get hit, which seemed very likely, I would have been gammoned.
Match score was a big issue for me as well. My take point is very low here at 5a/2a, but there are other factors that come into play, lots of pros and cons. If I were to go by race numbers alone and the TP, yes it is a take. I felt it was a very good double as well. But I had this ugly rigid board and that huge chasm to cross. Though, I did have Blue's 5 point, which was a plus for me if I did decide to take.

How does one weigh all these subtleties? I had to make a choice, and my choice was to drop that cube, I couldn't count on getting good doubles and I had way too many bad rolls. I wanted a clean, fresh, blank slate board. (if you are wondering how my board ended up like that? I rolled a few double one's as well as other ones where I just had to keep stacking).

I rolled it out to the 10k games and thankfully I chose well. If you just analyze the position using XG+, it is a take.

Michelle





White is Player 1

score: 7
pip: 94
9 point match
pip: 134
score: 4

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-AbG--CBaa----a---bbBbbb--:0:0:-1:00:7:4:0:9:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.78% (G:19.93% B:0.90%) 68.25% (G:20.80% B:0.96%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.22% (G:7.32% B:0.34%) 31.75% (G:8.50% B:0.46%)
Cubeless Equities +0.392 +1.031
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.870 (-0.130)0.004 (+0.866..+0.873)
Double/Take:+1.031 (+0.031)0.006 (+1.025..+1.038)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 24 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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