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Correction to previous post

Posted By: Terrapin
Date: Friday, 19 July 2013, at 8:21 p.m.

In Response To: Cube Action? (Terrapin)

Corrections to my Take Point calculations (thanks Igor):

Should White double?
We are 9a-5a with cube on 4
No Double Lose: 9a-1a 6% equity.
Double Lose: Game 0% equity.
Double Win: 1a-5a 84% equity.
No Double Win: 5a-5a 50% equity.

So NDL - DL = 6%, DW - NDW = 34%
Formula Risk/(Risk+Reward)
6/(34+7) =6/41 = 14.6%

White should double as winning chances are better than 15%

Should Blue Take?
Win: game 100% equity
Pass: 5a-5a 50% equity
Lose: 5a-1a 16% equity

Formula Risk/(Risk+Reward)
P-L/(W-P)+(P-L)
50-16/(100-50)+(50-16)=
34/50+34 = 40%

Blue should take as winning chances are better than 40%

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