Posted By: Terrapin In Response To: Cube Action? (mandm1951)
Date: Friday, 19 July 2013, at 4:14 p.m.
In Response To: Cube Action? (mandm1951)
Experts, please correct me if I am wrong - I am only just learning this myself but feel it is good for me to show my working out so I can learn by it.
Should White double?
We are 9a-5a with cube on 4
No Double Lose: 9a-1a(c) 7% equity.
Double Lose: Game 0% equity.
Double Win: 1a-5a(c) 81% equity.
No Double Win: 5a-5a 50% equity.
So NDL - DL = 7%, DW - NDW = 31%
7/(31+7) = 7/38 = 18%
White needs a 18% chance of winning this game to double. Any hit from the bar should give white a good chance of winning the game and there are 20 hits which is 56% therefore, this is a double.
Should Black Take?
Win: game 100% equity
Pass: 5a-5a 50% equity
Lose: 5a-1a(c) 19% equity
100-50 : 50-19
50:31 = 62%
White misses from the bar 44% of the time and even if hit, blacks chances are far from over and could well scrape together enough games after being hit to make this a borderline take.
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