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my thoughts

Posted By: Bill Calton
Date: Thursday, 25 July 2013, at 1:56 a.m.

In Response To: Bill v JOH 1 (Bill Calton)

This is from Michigan Summer Championships, Round 2 against O'Hagan.





White is JOH

score: 4
pip: 175
11 point match
pip: 160
score: 0

Blue is Bill
XGID=-b---aE-D-A-dC---d-ca---AA:0:0:1:55:0:4:0:11:10
Blue to play 55

1.XG Roller++Bar/20* 10/5* 8/3(2)eq: +0.802
Player:
Opponent:		61.57% (G:29.80% B:3.86%)
38.43% (G:6.72% B:0.24%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/20* 20/5* eq: +0.713 (-0.089)
Player:
Opponent:		59.81% (G:25.64% B:2.67%)
40.19% (G:7.65% B:0.30%)
3.XG Roller++Bar/20* 20/15 13/8 10/5* eq: +0.628 (-0.174)
Player:
Opponent:		57.95% (G:24.38% B:2.49%)
42.05% (G:8.51% B:0.36%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I played Bar/20*/15/10/5*. Hitting two checkers and coming around the board.

Better was Bar/20*, 10/5*, 8/3(2). This puts two checkers up and makes another home board point.

A few things:

1) I made this play too quickly. In, around the board and hitting two is sort of an automatic play but wrong here.

2) I have a bias against going deep. I don't like making deep points, especially with the wrong checkers. The correct play makes the 3 point but leaves the six point totally stacked. It looks ugly.

3) Apparently this is a blitzing theme rather than structure. After the correct play I have two checkers in the air against a two point board, and with ten men in the zone. Not in ideal positions, but in the zone. If he doesn't roll well immediately it's game over.

4) Actually I was also thinking that with my wrong play if JOH doesn't roll well it's over. So perhaps the difference is my play gives him more good rolls? Meaning after the computer play John desperately needs a 5 or it is curtains, but after my play John has good fives plus a few other rolls that are good enough?

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